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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • idealcarpentry idealcarpentry Jan 23, 2013 6:34 PM Flag

    How goes it my LDK long buddies ?

    I see Peng is still a PILE OF CHIT D. M. W. .... How he is still allowed to breath is amazing. Sad because some of the things I have read and heard through the grape vine about China and solar is amazing... These B S Stocks are only used to Steal American investors money. Just like we stole from them with all the #$%$ debt the purchased and wont get back thanks to Bernie and the printing machine... They will get it back one way or the other.. That seems to be what these Chinamen stocks are about. And to make it worse they have the Balls to charge ADR Fees... Nice Rim job from the brokers to boot.... At least solar is continuing to expand. Good luck to all of you. I surely hope none of you continued to buy any of these #$%$ stock... Myself Only investing in REAL Silver and Gold ... Lets me sleep well at night.

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    • Hey there my old LDK buddy in TN. We fought in the wars together-- the naked short wars. Glad you have turned to real gold and silver. Two questions for you:
      1. Do you think ABX, the largest gold miner, will turn back up soon? I'm holding some.
      2. Will Obama's new SEC boss (name slips me) turn it into an honest operation, or keep up the same old support-the-hedgers' illegal shorting?
      If I don't get an answer, I'll call you soon. Hope all is well with you.

    • Welcome back Biggy.

      Yep Peng stuck it to the longs. An Tsong is not doing any better, They are quickly starting to sell off assets and raise capital by diluting share counts.

      With the market expected to grow 20%, Chinese solar companies once again are starting to claim almost double that rate for their growth. They did the same the last 2 years and missed significantly. But let us presume 30% for Chinese is good growth. Trina would be around 2-2.1GW of Shipments. With the ASP at $0.65 they make $0.08 in the first half and $0.15 in the second half. First half 900MW second half 1200MW you have $72M gross first half and $165M the second half. Their current run rates are at $75M per Q so they lose $75M or $1 a share in the first half and net $15M in the second half or $0.15. These are at best numbers.

      LDK with a similar 30% growth ships 1.25GW wafers, 680MW modules and 250W of inverters. First half costs on wafers at $0.29 and ASP at $0.27 and modules at $0.62 costs and $0.65ASP loses around $1M before any expenses. Currently at $45M Opex and $65M interests per Q, LDK loses over $220M in the first half of 2012. The second half, with better utilizations and costs they make a penny on each wager sold and 9 cents on each module. The Gross $44M but have expenses and interest around $220M for a net loss in the second half of $180M.

      If tLDK dare try to fire up the Poly plant, they lose more money on every KG produced. Inverters might add $10M-$15M gross per half to the bottom line.

      In all LDK is likely staring at LDK losing close to $400M for 2013.

      My guess is they divest the Poly plant. And get stuck with around $2Billion in debts and only have wafering and a small module setup.

      LDK has 2x the wafer capacity needed and should dispose of ½ of that. They should dispose of the Poly plant. After all divestitures, they likely have 2GW of wafer capacity and around $2Billion in debts.

      • 1 Reply to twoheadedsnake1234
      • The prior message brought to you by Snake and Associates

        Warning - Dynamics change! Chinese Poly Tariffs in the near future can have far ranging impacts for cell and module makers. A bet on the GCL JKS LDK group is a bet on poly tariffs. Any other stock in the sector can and do result in Cracks assertions of loosing 250K.

        Dude - Believe me, Itally changing the FIT policy along with USA tariffs killed my projections. I'm shocked you would hang your hat on any numbers. Correct me if I am wrong but TSL *** REQUIRES *** cheap spot market prices and I thought TSL and YGE had massively over inflated assets.

    • Biggy,

      Regarding Peng, he is no longer in charge. It seems - if you want to assert the CEO is responsible, that Tong is doing a better job. I on the other hand believe it is the market that is driving stocks in the sector. What you have is China taking out about 30% of the market in Q4, ramping hard and supported by recent ASP increases.

      I remain in LDK but at a significantly reduced amount. I suspect Q1 numbers will be more encouraging.

      Good to hear from you again.

    • Biggie, we longs made bad mistakes and paid the price. Peng is not to blame. He was just too eager and he too paid the price. I doubt that he is a billionaire any longer. Buffet says we should all be in Index funds because we do not have the information, skill, or discipline to pick stocks. We mostly confirm our biases and lose. Good luck on silver and gold. Duc