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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • phreecash phreecash Aug 20, 2013 9:52 PM Flag

    Comments on some headlines...


    China to produce 80,000 tons of polysilicon, 23GWp of PV modules in 2013, says MIIT

    China aims at total PV installation capacity of over 350GWp in 2015, says report

    Particularily interesting....

    In addition, the China government has set guidelines for policies on the development of the solar energy industry, the report indicated. Among the guidelines are a minimum energy conversion rate of 20% for newly established makers or monocrystalline silicon solar cell factories, 18% for polycrystalline silicon solar cells, and a conversion rate of 12% for thin-film solar modules, the report said.

    // I believe LDK wafers, specifically, some of their patents and in particular M3 wafers just became high demand.

    Solarbuzz cites record solar shipments in 2Q

    Trendforce is unable to predict pricing in Q3

    //China_S2 – Question: The headlines, comments, poly price direction are suggesting a bottom as well as projected demand in China along with implied requirements of quality seem to be the medicine the doctor ordered. Would you agree? Tomorrow (Wednesday) is PVInsights update on poly. It will be interesting to see where poly pricing goes.

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    • phree;

      Let me first say that I am increasingly skeptical of the PV capacity installation targets purportedly coming out of China's various ministries. The original "Twelfth 5-Year Plan" for energy (which I have in the original Chinese) called for a target of 21GW by 2015 (up from 860MW at the end of 2010). In mid-September of last year, that target was reportedly revised upward, with figures of 40GW-41GW quoted at the time. In mid-July of this year, a target of 35GW was released. I don't find a target of 350GW to be credible. I think it's more likely that someone has mistranslated a target of 35GW.

      TrendForce is late this week with their spot price figures on the EnergyTrend site. That said, they published an article around the time China announced their punitive tariffs that may prove prophetic (should still be able to find it on the site). The crux of the article was that the tariffs would undeniably operate to raise the producer price for "poly". Simultaneously, they noted that a producer price increase also represented at cost increase for downstream industry participants, and that any long-term increase in "poly" pricing would be dependent on the ability of these downstream consumers to raise their own prices. So far, that doesn't seem to be happening. Indeed, PV Insights this week has downstream product average spot prices falling across the board, and the trend has been downward since the end of 2Q. The same has been true for TrendForce, but the decline hasn't been quite so steep in their data.

      Another factor we need to consider is the impact of a price rise on end-user demand. I can't verify at this point whether 2Q shipments actually do represent a record for Chinese producers. I do know, though, that the average price point for 2Q is at or near record low, so one would reasonably ask whether record shipments could be sustained in the face of a meaningful price increase across the entire supply chain.

      • 1 Reply to china_s2
      • I was taking the 350 GWp number as power production, not installed capacity. However, working equations backward, I cannot correlate. Your senario that an added zero in the press release or translation is likely.

        In any case, PVInsights is reporting:
        PV Grade Poly Silicon Price (9N / 9N+) 19.80 16.50 18.230 Positive Change Sign 0.73 Positive Change Sign 4.17%
        2nd Grade Poly Silicon Price (6N - 8N) 19.65 15.00 18.070 Positive Change Sign 0.67 Positive Change Sign 3.85%

        Up just about 10% in two weeks.

        The trend is positive toward a restart of LDK Poly operations and it is hard to correlate poly price direction to anything other that punitive tariffs and increasing Chinese demand for solar. Bodes well IMO

    • yeah ldk will finally slaughter the shorts