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Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. Message Board

  • ItsGonnaTank ItsGonnaTank Jul 5, 2003 3:02 PM Flag

    That's me

    Yes, sold in low 30s (guess that makes me a trader). I didn't expect to - thought I'd hold until the inevitable acquisition five years down the road - but making 4x in two years is usually a sign to sell in this industry.

    RE industry trends, bank stock bottomed out sharply in March 2000 (interestingly, as some on this board have recognized, just as the Nasdaq peaked), so March 98 to March 2000 was all OZRK just following the sector. The average bank is up about 2x, with many quality banks up 3x, since then. Your favorite bank bottomed out later on bad news that ended up being less bad than expected (bad loans often end up being "tip of the iceburg" situations) and is up about 5x from March 2000, and up almost 8x from its bottom.

    Growth will slow - high percentage growth is only possible in new banks because you can't attract deposits or grow capital fast enough to support rapid growth in larger banks - although the information on the local economy is interesting. Good bank, bad investment (IMHO), it rarely pays to buy what everyone else thinks is hot.

    Sorry about my handle if it bothers anyone, it's something I created during the internet bubble and always use when I'm negative on a stock.

 
OZRK
38.22+0.11(+0.29%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT