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Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited Message Board

  • jberkshire01 jberkshire01 Jun 22, 2006 11:30 AM Flag

    Book Value

    If an insurer can be underwrite profitably, it should be trading at least at book value right? Looking at FFH's 3 main businesses, Northbridge was very profitable in 2005, Crum & Forster although they did not underwrite quite at a profit, they did well enough to show the buseiness is intact to be profitable when investment income is considered, and OdysseyRe of course got whacked by Supercat exposure. The first quarter looked good and the second quarter will likely be strong as well. As I see it, barring a storm season comparable to 2005, all 3 businesses could be profitable in 2006 which means that FFH at 60% of book value could have a lot of upside. Considering the short ratio is upwards of 40 days, there could be a very significant short squeeze if the business does in fact show some positive numbers. We can't predict the whether and we don't know for sure how pricing is until well after the fact, but with at 60% of book with a smart management team with a lot of their wealth tied to making sure they are pricing well, I certainly see a case for a modest investment.

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