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North Atlantic Drilling Limited Message Board

  • turbofever turbofever Mar 11, 2013 12:08 PM Flag

    Averaging down

    $9.00 & under. Hopefully I'm not catching a falling knife.

    Assuming the div is safe, then $9.00 = 10% yield.

    Good luck to the longs!

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    • robin0635 Mar 20, 2013 1:39 PM Flag

      3/12: added to my position @9.04 this morning; also added to SDRL @ lows before 12pm... (Not what I had planned at all).
      No idea what is causing this erratic movement in NATDF, nor SDRL - thought it has settled down for awhile and could be placed on the shelf until listing - (guess that's not going to happen).
      No matter how you look at it, this is one UGLY chart pattern, all under 200 day MA, with no discernable pattern of market direction, either up nor down,
      Any feedback would be appreciated...

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to robin0635
      • NATDF acting "as expected" IMO, given last CC... If it can stay above $9 to May, great. (Don't forget the .225c div you have on the way, too). Then watch for IPO pop, and/or June conf call. If neither of these 2 events bring us notably over the previous $10.25 we were hanging around, well, then it's time to consider putting $$ to work elsewhere perhaps.

        SDRL: Recent weakness is unfortunate, SLB's recent announcement didn't help... Imo, $36's are reasonable though. Company needs to give some bullish news in June after the less-than-stellar past few Q's. But with new builds later this year & quality mgmt I think patience will be rewarded. Personally, given overall market heights (and likely to get higher in the short term), I would wait for a potential market pullback in the coming couple months and sub-$36 SDRL prices before adding any more. Doesn't mean such an opportunity will present itself of course.

        Good luck!

    • robin0635 Mar 11, 2013 2:44 PM Flag

      Much gratitude for your reply regarding qualified vs. unqualified status in re dividend/income differentiation... (Quite an interesting issue regarding a Bermuda Co., trading initially on the Canadian Exchange , with a five-to-one reverse-split, then OTC on the NYSE, with Directors from Norway, soon to be listed formally on the NYSE/approved by the SEC under a new acronym of NADL) - Would make for a great question on a law school exam !
      I've since been enlightened that once listed on the NYSE, the entire issue becomes MOOT... You provided a host of useful information and I thank you for taking the time and effort in doing so !

      Regarding NATDF, I'm with you on averaging down (again), before the close, and it still holds promise when both the listing on the NYSE and the IPO occurs. The Gulf of Mexico and Brazil hold considerable oil and gas reserves that requires deep-sea rigs, so I remain optimistic over the long run... However, whether we are "catching a falling knife" remains to be seen...

      Like you, I am going to "place this stock on the shelf" for now and see what transpires... Maybe other informed posters have added insight. I'm fresh out !

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to robin0635
      • Happy to help!

        In the long term I'll likely be happy I averaged my cost down yesterday. No idea about the near-term though, I wouldn't be surprised in coming weeks by repeats of yesterday's action, below my latest purchase prices.

        At somewhere near 10% yield, and new rigs starting in the coming year, we should ultimately be well-paid to wait. But if the NYSE listing doesn't generate a pop or gets further delayed, and SDRL management doesn't give us some reasons to believe during the next CC, then I will likely join the list of investors who don't have the patience (vs. other opportunities).

        Fingers crossed

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