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  • osulinn osulinn Aug 8, 2012 6:54 PM Flag

    A Few Rational Thoughts


    You have a lot of good points..

    The same thing can be said to a lot of stocks too.

    Can we give HPQ a PE of 20? Can we give BAC a PE of 20? BA not PE of 20, CAT?

    What makes you think PCLN deserves PE of 20 while the rest of stocks junk?

    If the market is rational??
    Had hedge funds not cornered the PCLN stock shares, you think it had been at 770?

    Rational? When analysts put up 40$ a share for 2013, was it rational?

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    • Definitely good comments, I think it's tough to rational HPQ because much of their business is being canabalized by IPad, etc, and their printer division really has lost it's way between talk of breaking if off, selling it, etc. So there's business risk there. The odds of them driving sizable growth is slim. If Meg gets it sorted, it could probably support a 20 again, but there would need to be growth drivers.
      BAC is tough because financial companies don't value out the same way traditional businesses do. The volatility of the business is tough to value, so them along with most other financials don't support a 20. CAT products can saturate a market. You can use the same products for a longer time if capital gets tight and there isn't a need for new tractors. So their risk to a slowing world economy is big. The cool thing about PCLN is that it's transactional,you constantly have to buy it to travel (or some other solution), so the question isn't whether or not someone will travel (they may less, but will travel) it's who will they buy the travel through. So if PCLN can differentiate themselves, and thus far they have, they'll be the ones travel providers turn to to get their rooms, planes and cars booked. They should be able to sustain double digit + growth for the forseeable future with expansion to China and Central/South America.
      That growth forecast can't really be said about the other co's.

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