When the U.S. Dollar goes down, commodity prices go up.
Have you looked at CCX, the Commodity Currency ETF?
It is a basket of currencies of commodity exporting countries. It's roughly equally weighted in the Canadian Dollar, Aussie Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Russian Ruble, South African Rand, Norwegian Krone, Chilean Peso and Brazilian Real.
It seems to do what it's supposed to do. It goes up when the U.S. Dollar goes down, and it goes down when the U.S. Dollar goes up.
even if china changes the rate, this etf is till losing money. because this etf does not hold chinese YUAN directly, it holds future contract, like stock options, huge FEE. China YUAN will not jump 20% suddendly, may be just 3 to 5 percent, in this way, this ETF will lose money.
I started to feel that chinese economy is decoupling much faster from US especially if oil stays high for a long time. I feel like USA will get hit with inflation in the coming years because all Asian countries are already demanding higher wages with higher oil. There is no escape for the US from inflation.
problem with decoupling is the chinese economic paradigm. they have a manufacturing emphasis, not consumer. they dont have american style credit. they dont have insurance really. they dont really have the consumer force to take americas place as a consumer based economy; a major problem is the goods the manufacture domestically are MORE expensive for chinese than for us; stores like Wall Mart buy huge volumes that noone can compete with; this allow lower pricing, but domestic corps will pay more. not to mention china will see its exports crushed; and will see capital flee the country; it could be a coutner intuitive effect where they avoid yuan strength at any cost.