I heard a part of the Investor Conference Call from yesterday and management sounded truely encouraged and upbeat regarding the Phase II results. More info to be released at ASCO. The call went about an hour and I heard half of it. Will listen closely on the weekend and will try and write up some notes.
If anyone receives anaylst updates please share. Thanks.
the ARQL situation is quite simple: - HCC indication is a quite sizable market without any 2d-line treatments - designing their 2d-line PhII HCC trial, the company did not expected to get good results. consequently, there was no attempt to go for a PhII registration trial (small number of pts with allowed crossovers - the HCC monotherapy results have met primary TTP stag-sig goals with respectable HR=0.67 and p=0.04 - due to crossovers, OS will not have a placebo baseline but can be compared with available literature data - RR will be of great interest. if data are good, many inoperable pts can become eligible for a surgery
The bottom line If HCC data are good, ARQL can become a $1.0+ market cap company after ASCO. Registration quality NSCLC data will drive ARQL's MC well over $2.5B
This was the first indication where they can confirm activity as a single agent, very exciting. Then the nexavar(current first line therapy) combo data is not very far behind. They were drooling over sub-analysis data but holding on the nuggets till ASCO. Lung interim analysis in the summer.