Listened to the Leerink Swann presentation. I didn't hear much optimism for any real near term postive news. Paolo Pucci sounded tired and almost defeated. He didn't go by the slides and after an opening summary of 2012 events took questions. There were 2 slides about drugs in the pipeline but no mention of them. Pharmainvestor, did you hear the presentation? What is your take.
It seems like all the negativity is based on last years failures. Everyone knows of those disasters and the share price reflects those events. Right now ARQL is all about HCC. Its one of the very few company's in this space right now and its a huge opportunity. As such there is only one way for the share price to go. Throw in the paper for ASCO in a few months and I am much more up beat than anyone on the MB. There is opportunity to make money here.
It wouldn't matter if the HCC indication fails as well, the price CANNOT go more than 10% lower because ARQL has over 2.1 in cash and equivalents. Although today was down again, you can tell it's purely a fishing expedition on the part of the market maker as there was next to no volume. Institutions are just stepping aside, not buying yet, letting it fall on low volume to see where any buys might come in or to see how desperate some individual is to sell. I was buying heavily today, and will buy even more heavily on any further downside.
I was optimistic until some of the negative news. I think of selling ARQL and taking the tax loss but the other bio I owned was ARIA and sold when things looked bleak and the price was around $3/share. Now it's at 20. Lesson learned? I don't want to make that mistake again. Is it darkest before the dawn?