Actually, you are both wrong. The distributors will probably work with BMY-San because while they need to move product, they need to maintain their relationship with BMY as much as BMY needs them. Some form of compromise will undoubtedly come out of this where both sides leave something on the table.
Who is "actually" wrong will remain to be seen. We are all guessing here. BMY has the strong hand because the judge already ruled on the likelihood of patent infringement by granting the injunction. Unlike Apotex, the distributors could be on the hook for up to the statutory limit of treble damages for patent infringement.
I think a return of their unsold stock to Apotex for a refund to get BMY off their back makes more sense. Since Apotex is only on the hook for 50% of NET sales, any return of stock from distributors will lower the net sales number.
It would make a bad precedent for a pharma to allow a likely infringing generic in the maketplace just because they have a "relationship" with a major distributor. The compromise could be no damages sought by BMY against the distributors in exchange for a return of unsold product to Apotex. Hence, I believe the damage to BMY will be less than generally anticipated because it will not have to continue until the current supply of generic runs out.
Wouldn't it be interesting if the judge has the power and the inclination to award a patent extension or special dispensation to the plaintiffs to makeup for all the damage caused by Apotex not recovered by the 50% of net sales issue? They have been known to make some very creative decisions in the past. As egregious as Apotex's bargaining in bad faith was, IMO, I'd love to see it at trial. That might makeup for some of the suffering we stockholders have endured. <GRIN>
If only the drug wholesale and retail trade was so cooperative, Shooter. The more aggressive chains will try to grab all the generic they can and the hospital groups too. Diverters will ship the generic all over.
Cost containment pressures are so great there is no making nice.
Apo will have loaded the trade to the max while this action was pending. It would not surprize me if some wholesalers have two years' supply.
Plavix sales next 12 months will be less than $1 billion, in my estimate. Could even be as low as $500 million.
Another thought on BMS/distributor relations: if BMS and distributors take any action to limit Apo product sales, they have conspired to restrict competition. Dolan is stupid enough to try this. Cardinal, McKesson, Amerisource are run by smater types.