Today's NY Times knocks your view into a cocked hat, in my opinion.
They basically say that MOT needs to do one or both of -- probably both, even though they conflict -- "find a hit" at the high end and don't cede the commodity business -- get as good as NOK in terms of mfg and other efficiencies.
Meanwhile, it's much better than a zero-sum game, where MOT loses and someone else gains. This is still a rapidly expanding biz., and I figure it's got 5-10 years of the kind of advances we saw in PC's ahead of it.... There will be plenty at the high end (if the economy doesn't implode), such that folks will take everything in their office and living room with them (well, since size very much matters, mostly they'll take e-mail and other 'net based communications and entertainment.
And that's were ANAD lives. People who are wary -- but not so wary that they see a bear market in the near future -- can play ANAD as likely to benefit from the Iphone's introduction more than any company around -- including, especially, Apple, which may (like Sony) see its winning streak get snapped. I think there's reasonably good visibility on ANAD's fortunes for 18-36 months out, and if ANAD is still independent at that point, I'll be the most surprised person on the planet!
Oh yes, as we go way the heck down the cost curve, the few billion people on earth in less affluent environs than our own will keep ANAD and lots of others awash with cash.
Remember, ANAD is NOT into "commodity" products and probably never will be. Palm had a big press release a couple of weeks back when they snagged some design genius and said he might be able to make them a player again more or less via his own "genius." ... ANAD, in many ways, is like a Dreamworks with Spielberg (and his 2 very gifted partners, although that goes back a ways.) ... Some very bright people are being "channeled" into this niche where you KNOW billions of dollars are being spent every day, and more and more with each passing day. Yeah, it *IS* too good to be true, so ANAD's biggest worry has got to be competition, but I'm betting they won't "ramp down" as fast as they're ramping up. And if you read a few of the posts here and any other secondary source, you'll find that they're "in bed with" (in the very best possible sense of those words) with folks like Samsung and LG and Intel. (In many spheres with which I'm familiar, it's common to say that "However it turns out, the lawyers, bankers, accountants, etc. are gonna get rich on this or that." ... ANAD, I believe, is in that very enviable position re all those gizmos that are sucking up "parental" dollars like nothing else in my lifetime. Of course, "the parents" are buying in in a big way on their own, but if you share my vision that the only thing you're more likely to know a teen has on his/her person is underwear, and that thing (roughly speaking, his/her ipod and/or iphone or clone) costs $100 minimum, you (like me) have simply "gotta want a piece of THAT!"