As we have seen each and every time VVTV pps moves up the naysayers posts are no where to be seen. If management comes through it will be a long time before we hear from them other than post by worried shorts caught in an uptick to cover. However than again we won't hear the end of it from the naysayers if management does not come through. For now we wait.
2013 the year we should see a quarter with a profit.
The set up is inplace, performance by management is the key to that. The customers are the tool to make it happen.
"if the management does not come through" ?
He's been CEO for 4 YEARS!!! Double the business in 3 to 5 years! Sales have been a flatline since he took over!
How long do you plan on waiting for "management to come through?"
Patient EKG: Flatline=Dead.
Gentle Reader (aka MR, Paulie Pantload's slightly smarter twin brother)
$565,000,000 $176.00 71,740,000
$528,000,000 $108.00 73,576,000
$562,300,000 $101.00 76,437,000
$558,400,000 $104.00 79,822,000
$558,400,000 $99.00 83,500,000
What do the above numbers represent? If you can discern that you might have become slightly smarter.
mktr..., I will for your benefit repeat my self. The five year plan would have succeeded if not for the electronics issue. With the changes in product mix one would expect some lag but in the economical state the U.S. was in at the start of the plan KS and Team kept that to a minimum which was a surprise to me. KS and Team inherited quite the problem that drove the pps to .20 per share. The plan was working for awhile and the pps recovered under the leadership of KS to 8.73 per share before the electronics issue came. It is true it took a very long time to correct this issue, some 15 months or so. That left the Team to abandon the five year plan and regroup and fix the issue which they did in Oct 2012 (I believe that is when it was corrected) which leads us to Q4 numbers which will be the first full quarter with the electronics for a quarter. Also in 2012 KS and Team renegotiated the carriage costs down 15M which we will see a full quarter effect in Q1 2013. Not to mention in 2012 improved the channel positions and added more households. So mktr you can continue to think this company is "Dead" but I expect, if I am right, You may just regret that move, but I do wish you well.
2013 could be the most 'profitable' (as measured by EBITDA) year in this 22 year old start-ups' storied history. That would mean 2013 should be greater than the $17.7M EBITA achieved in the year ending 1/31/2007 when Sir Will of Lansing was lord of the realm.
In late 2006 the pps achieved a HI of $14.12. A pps not seen since.
If 2013 is indeed the year it could be then it seems reasonable to expect a pps in the $12-$14 range one of these days, weeks or months.
I am not so sure we will see actual profitablity (beyond the EBITDA flavor) until next year.
Of course, just as Sir Will of Lansing chose 'poorly' (in reference to the grail) and he fell on his sword (actually pushed on his sword) in October 2007 for a major guidance miss...marking the beginning of the 5 year curse that still afflicts the pps...KS & Team could also choose 'poorly' and fritter away the $15M FTE savings on all manner of absurdities which would continue the pps curse for even more days, weeks, months, years....
Thinking positively, let's hope KS & Team choose wisely!
mar, Yes if they choose wisely which if you look at this teams history, I believe they will. Now if I am right and they let the 15M hit the bottom line (or most of it) at 1.25 per month the chance of a profitable quarter is there to be had. I do not think "Sir Will" had anything close to that number but was more part of the problem of increased carriage cost which was part of his demise. I do think KS and Team are in a better situation with their experience in this business and their model shows that. It has taken a long time to get to this point and if not for the electronics issue we would be well at the 12-14 level today as their five year plan would have worked in the end. Now we must put aside the old plan and look at the future to get back on track and that should be shown in the Q4 number somewhat but more so in the Q1 since Q4 will only receive 1.25M although strong electronics could help also. But starting in Q1 and for each of the following Q's each will get 3.75M to the bottom line (and this does not consider any other contracts that are being negotiated in 2013) and that is where we could see a quarter or two with dare I say, a profit.
Now why I say a quarter or two are because if they reach any new terms they might have to put up some cash up front on channel positions where the savings in carriage would show up in time as the effect of that event takes place and I am ok with that. But first they need to show wall street and us investors that they are in control of the operations side of the business and that is why they may want to show a profit first. Again JMHO