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Nutrisystem, Inc. Message Board

  • grow_and_grow grow_and_grow Dec 25, 2006 5:21 PM Flag

    NTRI revenues grew 140% and earnings grew 225%. Stupid to short.

    NTRI revenues grew 140% and earnings grew 225% with PE only 33.
    I really do not understand how can anyone be so stupid to even think about short sell NTRI?

    This is a very fast growing and profitable company. It is suicidal to short sell a company like this.

    You should buy NTRI.

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    • The beauty of investing based on financial reports is that the financial reports already include all factors. It is the sum of all factors that caused this company to report high revenue and earning growth rates. The growth could come from favorite FTC actions, good management, good products, or whatever. They are all captured in the financial numbers. Something has to be very right for a company to be able to get 140% revenue growth and 225% earning growth.

      You should buy on any dip for this cheap and fast growing company.

    • Bulls: Scott Van Winkle at Canaccord Adams has a bullish research piece out on NTRI check it out. He argues that the FTC crackdown on diet pills will help NTRI. Might be a stretch...

    • Growth case in this discussion so far is that revenues grew 140% so the trend must continue. That's it. Past = Future.

      Watch the PR video presentation from the investor day and you'll see what drove record sales (To NTRIs credit). The question is will this continue. Can PR pull another rabbit out of a hat? Do more aging sports stars vs. one equal continued growth?

      I'd keep the position long or short less than 2.5% of a portfolio. Stock could see $30 or $90 before the truth is known. Playing with fire.

      Unfortunately the June 07 65 Straddle is OTO $18.10. Too rich.

      So we wait for Feb. to get a glimpse of the truth. Bulls are correct we could see several more quarters of good numbers. But, in the long run this is not a business I'd want to own. 15 minutes are almost up...

    • let me try to mediate if i can... some of you seem to say that it is foolish to short this stock.. someone else "lago..go" doesn't completely disagree with that concept.
      if i'm not mistaken, he doesn't say u should sell he just argues that it is very risky to buy.. which is not exactly the same. in fact, we do the same when we argue that it is foolish to short..

      he has a negative bias we have a positive one.. that's all.

    • The 7% is derived from the financial statements. You can also derive that number from the prospectus, assuming you read it.

    • You idiot. The growth the company is seeing is RECENT. The reactivation in 2006 does not even include customers from Q2, Q3, and Q4 2006! The hyper growth only really started in Q3 2005 so of course the reactivation would be small right now. And the only way your going to know the reactivation rate is to know how much revenue each reactivated customer generates! KEEP RESEARCHING!

    • I do not care whether the customers are new or old. As they got more and more revenues, they can spend more and more money on advertisements and get more and more new customers.

      That is business.

      As long as the revenues and profits are going up fast, I do not care whether the customers are new or old, men or women.

    • They'll do around 480m in Rev. from new customers and 40m from prior customers for F2006. New customers don't keep coming back.

    • LOL. You mean according to HERB GREENBERG, 7% of customers return. Are you honestly taking what Greenberg says as factual? Do some research and try again.

    • 7% of NTRI's customers return.

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