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Conceptus, Inc. Message Board

  • jerrywang99 jerrywang99 May 11, 2011 1:42 AM Flag

    M&A officially off the table

    essure is a market share loser now. the market is shrinking. and the company's sales are declining fast. it's also barely generating any cash (and probably just through some working capital tricks).

    the company is already ridiculously expensive and M&A is priced in.

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    • Reasonable point, JerryWang. But you don't have to buy at the very bottom and sell at the very top to be a successful investor. You just have to buy "relatively" low and sell "relatively" high. I think CPTS is now relatively low.

      I'm sure you know the saying about pigs and hogs...

    • why buy something that is appropriately valued? buy it when it's inappropriately cheap! (which is definitely not the case for cpts. yet. )

    • At today's closing price of $10.87 a share (a market cap of $335 million), CPTS is probably a buy.

      Although I don't particularly like the company and I think management is inept, it is probably appropriately valued now.

    • Boy, just when you think it can't get worse.

    • No matter how you feel about CPTS, I think we can agree that it is one ugly chart.

    • i've done extremely well shorting this stock. In fact, it's one of the few small cap healthcare stocks that is both shortable and has significantly underperformed in the past year.

      it's really not a surprise either: when a company misses consensus 4 out of the past 8 quarters and revises guidance 4 times in the past two years, either the management is incompetent or misleading. Either way, they are not to be trusted as good stewards of investor money.

      you would have done better just parking your money in pfizer for the past five years (and collected a dividend along the way).

    • I didn't say average. I said majority. I have no shares in double digits though.

      It's not eating away unless I sell now instead of later at a higher or lower price. I will swing trade this when the volatility becomes absurd. However, I am more than willing to be patient and let them execute their strategy.

      Keep shorting. You have a lot more pressure playing against the hedge funds than going long against them. How many shares traded today and the price barely moved. More shares than outside institutional control. 2MM shares the last two days. These are funds playing both sides.

      They start the crash and when the momentum traders start piling in - they reverse course. On the way up and way down.

    • i doubt your average price is $0.50. you would have had to bought all your shares in 1998 and have not bought any more in the following 14 years.

      giving you the benefit of the doubt, all your profits have been made and now cpts' job is to continue eat away at your profits, as has been happening the past 4 years.

    • Well - since I bought the vast majority of my shares at $0.50 I guess your statement is wrong. I have also taken advantage of runs to the mid $20's and been able to trade some on these normal cycles while maintaining a strong.core. you can make money shorting this but you have to be very careful when going up against the institutions that control the movement.

    • it's been a fantastic investment for me. i enjoyed shorting it the over the past 12 months. it's been horrible for anyone who has believed in the company.

      unless you bought the stock in early 2009, you've lost money. pretty much every investor in this company has lost money which is quite sad considering we're been in the strongest bull rally in a generation.

      in the smallcap healthcare sector, this is one of the very few shorts that has worked. you could have more than doubled your money in the russell 2000 etf in the same time frame with vastly less risk.

      stock price doesn't lie. to say this has been anything but a horrible investment is simply false.

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