Synthroid $600 million is going any month (at least $300 of the 600 will go bye bye).
TriChor and Biaxin XL if you read the pink sheet have generics coming within the next 12-18 months.
How you going to make up 2 billion in lost sales to generics? Raise the price of Humari 400%? I sold today, going with Genentech and a pipeline. Ya, its priced high, but this dog hasn't barked in two years.
Synthroid - no reason to believe 50% sales decrease. Generics have been there for years. No new competition.....
Though perhaps down from current levels, TriCor and Biaxin will continue strong for at least 5-7 more years (despite generics) to generate 1/2 to 3/4 $Billion.
Humira, at CURRENT projections, will add $1 Billion more by 2006, and with ongoing clinicals for even more indications, could hit $1.5 - 2 Billion incremental by 2006.
Then project the 'pipeline' drugs - Vicodin C/R, Asoprisnil, Simdax, and the TriCor follow-on for Cholesterol/TriGlycerides, and you have maybe another $1B.
Finally, increased investment in R&D expected to yield 9 new compounds per year (increased over current 5-6 per year).
....and that's just Pharma. Then look at Diagnostics, Molecular, Vascular, Diabetes, Spinal, and all the other parts of the Med'l Products Group --- all looking strong and ready to take full advantage of the economic upswing and the baby booming medicare'rs.
With Abbott in your screen name you think you would know a little about the company.
When you get an AB rated generic to Synthroid, its over pal. That will happen soon. Yes, generics have been around for twenty years, but not an AB rated product. You know little about this product if you don't know this. Its not the customer that will decide,not the patient, not the physician, it will be the payor (HMO, Medicaid, and now Medicare) that will make your hear one giant sucking sound south on your marketshare. Easily 50% in 6 weeks. Just look at Coumadin generic (which is a much more sensitie therapeutic window). Generics blew that out in 12 weeks, hey, nobody died. Guess what, Levoxyl is the number one LT4 in California and Arizona, no one died. When it goes AB rated in the orange book, its over, sorry to say, but true. Hey it was a great 47 year run.
Your drinking the company Kool aid on those patents for Biaxin and Tricor, you need to read the FDA reports on generic fillings, time is limited.
9 new products a year? How about one good one? PLEASE, Vicoden CR (maybe you have not seen the competion, Forest will have a sustained release Hydrocodone out in the next several months with no APAP). Plus generic Oxycontin. Another Billion? Boy, your not reading the same analyst reports, annual reports, and 10K's and 10Q's I am. There isn't one blockbuster waiting approval or in phase III. If so, name it? Why is the stock down over the last 2-3 years? Humira is the only bright spot, but the competion from this will heat up from Pfizer, BMS, Biogen/Idec real soon. And please, don't tell me your making it up with Mavik and Tarka. Those dogs were dead when Knoll launched them about 6-7 years ago. Old Hoeschst products they decided not to launch because of "me to" status.