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Abbott Laboratories Message Board

  • snugly60031 snugly60031 Jun 23, 2006 1:05 PM Flag

    Stagflation Then Recession

    Big ticket goods sales down for second consecutive month; however, the Fed MUST keep raising rates, because foreign lenders demand compensation for weak Dollar causing them to lose principal on all US loans. I don't believe the Fed would raise rates without the foreign pressure, because it has not been in the business of inflation fighting since Volker. With the combined impact of rising rates and rising oil, most everything else rises in cost due to their impact, and so the standard of living is reduced when wages do not keep up with prices, and we have Stagflation. Businesses then cut operations/employment in attempt to control rising costs and remain profitable. Eventually the US goes into recession, leading the World into recession, because the World's other leading economies are export driven, and we are their principal buyer. As US demand declines due to weak economy, China and India will plummet. Demand and therefore price for oil will drop, as will metal prices. Of course by that time interest rates will have stabilized, or will have started going down.
    This is the economic cycle. We have peaked on this cycle and are starting to move downward. We have a long way to go before it starts turning up again.

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    • X,
      No I was not with ABT in '76 but ABT was acustomer of mine in PPD and ADD. Did contract work for big Pharma.
      Started with Carl D. at Palo Alto, Ca Stanford was incubator for Alza, Syntex & the like.
      Just had good fin.advice along the way, guy /c EF Hutton said hey buy ABT.

    • Creeper

      Did you start in '76. we could have passed each other in a hallway somewhere in N. Chicago.

      Back then you had to be there 3 yares before you could "buy in" the stock program. No limits on contributions. Had I been a little wiser I could probably be right there in # of shares with Plute or Phy. But when your young and single, who thinks about retirement?


    • X,
      Have way too much ABT have been accum. since '76. Sold large chunk at $51., holding WMT,MRK,UPl, CHK, SWN and abot 6 others dogs. think I'm gioing to more cashand some "90day rates seem fairly attractive.
      Sold HSP at high by dumb ass luck and sold ELN 3 months ago,& INTC as well.
      Just wondering what an ABT bud was doing.

    • Creeper

      Lots of Abbott 28 years worth, Alliance Capital (AB), Acumulating Dell, Neopharm, Global Sante Fe, and about a dozen mutual funds. Adding more microsoft

      Was doing HURC (industial tools, automated lathe machinery)jumped out at 29 and change. Got rid of the Hospira 12 cents from the high point.


    • Snug

      Most currencies are pegged to the US$. Jean-Claude Trichet tried to reevalue the almighty � and the world stock markets went in a tailspin. Trichet reversed course in a hurry, didn't he! The dollar is the world currency ... globalism at work.

      Vraiment! Kiki

    • Snug,
      What if anything are you buying? I think Plute is right when he says, now, cash is king? But there has to be some opps out there.
      Ken Fisher's group is pushing "Aallta" ? a German co. and Dow Chem in Forbes?
      Is that all there is in the pond?

    • Consult Lib before the Jewish Lobby.

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