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  • jd9919 jd9919 Nov 29, 2010 11:52 AM Flag

    Latest Goldman report on ABT

    "Estimate changes - In concordance with updating our immunology market model to reflect updated
    market shares, growth rate, and pricing estimates, we are modestly reducing our
    Humira estimates and lowering our 12-month price target to $54 from $58.
    We now project Humira worldwide sales of $7.58 billion in 2011 (down from $7.68 billion),
    rising to $9.94 billion in 2015 (down from $10.4 billion). We are also lowering our Abbott
    12-month price target to $54 from $58, which we arrive at by applying a lower 11.5X
    multiple to 2011 EPS to reflect the increased competitive risk to Humira. We have not
    changed our Humira estimate to reflect tasocitinib estimates, nor have we raised our Pfizer tasocitinib estimates (currently $80 million in 2012, rising to $700 million in 2015).

    "Upside risks to our view and price target include development of the JAK-3 inhbitors which could ultimately fail in clinical development, benefitting Humira; downside risks include further risk to our Humira forecasts based on worse-than-expected competitive dynamics."

    Americas: Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals
    November 28, 2010

 
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