"Estimate changes - In concordance with updating our immunology market model to reflect updated market shares, growth rate, and pricing estimates, we are modestly reducing our Humira estimates and lowering our 12-month price target to $54 from $58. We now project Humira worldwide sales of $7.58 billion in 2011 (down from $7.68 billion), rising to $9.94 billion in 2015 (down from $10.4 billion). We are also lowering our Abbott 12-month price target to $54 from $58, which we arrive at by applying a lower 11.5X multiple to 2011 EPS to reflect the increased competitive risk to Humira. We have not changed our Humira estimate to reflect tasocitinib estimates, nor have we raised our Pfizer tasocitinib estimates (currently $80 million in 2012, rising to $700 million in 2015).
"Upside risks to our view and price target include development of the JAK-3 inhbitors which could ultimately fail in clinical development, benefitting Humira; downside risks include further risk to our Humira forecasts based on worse-than-expected competitive dynamics."
Americas: Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals November 28, 2010