What a jump today....let's hope what we all know
gets across to everyone else soon. Abbott has so many
new products in their established company that it has
to hit big soon. I am trying to find a sales rep now
to tell me about their new drug, "The Closer." If we
don't jump bigtime in the next year, very analyst that
I have seen will be surprised.
That they (investment models) are a waste of
time, is YOUR inference, not mine.
Nor did I
assert that anyone suggested they were absolutely
predictive. I was responding to rongern's response to another
poster with whom he disagreed. That response, that
his/her investment model relied on luck, implied that
only models that don't rely on luck are useful. In
that instance, only one inference could be
I used a story to illuminate my displeasure with
purely mathmatical trend analyses. I never claimed
people who use them are either a)completely wrong to do
so or b) destined to always fail.
would assert that even those ostensibly developing
recommendations on trends alone, at some point, fit facts to
theories, and when they do engage in a bit of
self-deception if not outright intellectual dishonesty. Let's
hope Americans continue to allow the market to weed
out the true frauds and not let liberals move in with
self-serving government regulators.
I'm responding to a post from sellhi_2000 in
which he/she states that all investment models are
based on luck. The inference is that they are a waste
of time. I disagree. Investment models are nothing
more than tools to help make intelligent choices. I
don't believe anyone suggested they were absolutely
predictive. In any model the assumption is that the past will
predict the future. All modelers know they cannot account
for forces out of their control (interest rate hikes,
$100 million fines, NASDAQ crash, earnings surprises,
etc). The models simply provide additional information
to be considered in an investment decision. But to
your point, sellhi_2000, it would be silly to rely on
models as the only source of info.
depend on luck. Using past trends, like
onlyonpaper, et. al., to predict future trends seems silly to
me, especially when those same types acknowledge the
influence of "unexpected" external and internal events.
They (trend analyses) remind me of the science fiction
trilogy Foundation, by Issac Asimov. The main character
(was it Harry Seldon?) developed a mathematical model
in which the future could be predicted with virtual
certainty. At least it could for a while, but since
predictability becomes boring, introducing the "unlikely" is
required to keep reader attention, so Asimov has some
"mutant" come along to change history. The book's original
thesis becomes self-defeating, and in the end you're
left wondering why you even bothered tackling it to
I have a new investment model to consider. How
about taking the advice of some of these posters (I
can't bear to use the word "investors") and then just
take a short position? By the way, where do you think
they get their Magic 8 Balls? I thought they stopped
selling them years ago.
There are several mistakes in your
FDA regulatory compliance is the law. Compliance
(following the law) is not a matter of luck. Miles White
chose not to cooperate with the FDA. The areas of
non-compliance for the fine were in the Diagnostics Division
where Miles came from.
The 18 month "model" you
are using is not valid. Past breakouts were triggered
by indetifiable causes that cannot be predicted.
Examples include the Gulf War, the defeat of Clinton
health care reform and the decline in intrest rates.
Your investment model depends on luck.
To go,this is just one way to look at when the
stock has takes a breath.
What you have to look
at is when it first has gone over 25 pe, then you
have to compare to interest rates.
tell you that I would love to discuss this with you in
isn't sure of what he considers "inappropriate
behavior". Almost all his posts contain profanity, yet he
objects to Abbott employees buying clients "table
dances". Dirty mouth, dirty mind. My guess is he's a royal
hypocrite in addition to being a royal rat.