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  • ronalddickman ronalddickman Jul 2, 2010 9:58 AM Flag

    Relentless Selling Pressure

    I find it mind boggling the relentless selling pressure in this stock.

    I am starting to think it goes down when oil goes down. Cheap oil means maybe less electric vehicles wanted? I do not know anymore.

    Sellers seem happy to keep selling at a loss.

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    • I'm beginning to question owning the Chinese batteries at all.

      All the heavy-hitters (primarily out of Japan and Korea) are now stepping up to announce they plan on entering the market to produce batteries for Electric and Hybrid vehicles.

      Also, as you note, crude has been falling since early spring, thus reducing any urgency (both political and consumer) to enhance EV demand.

      Finally, the recession is dragging on and on - and nobody in their right mind is going to be paying a premium for an EV when they can get a cheaper ICE.

      So, if put in a blender, I think the result may very well be a nice battery glut where the smaller players are simply put out of business due to margin pressures.

      Maybe ABAT can somehow manage by selling their scooters - but if the Chinese economy slows down (because they can't sell as many widgets to Europe and the US) then I'd expect to see more Chinese climbing back on their traditional bicycles.

      • 1 Reply to fritz_schnabel
      • <<I'm beginning to question owning the Chinese batteries at all.>>

        The whole wisdom of investing in China should be questioned: it is an idiocy, it is the most treacherous imaginable: it is the same as to build a house on the tip of an accumulating energy volcano.
        The China is in a transitory, temporary stage of building its socialism. It is "the new economic policy" -- something absolutely akin to the Lenin's NEP, New Economic Policy of 1920. At that time, in revolutionary destabilized Russia, just emerged from its devastating chain of wars (ww1 and civil wars), the economy was wholly ruined , and there were no funds to restore it. The only way to restore it was a stepping back to capitalism. So, NEP. This attracted massive foreign investment…. But just in four years, Stalin vitiated it (against vehement objection of many his comrades, but under the circumstances, he had to: otherwise the approaching ww2 would be lost). The USSP had no luxury of riding on the back of capitalism at that time any longer (it needed the fervent Stalin's industrialization). But China can afford it. Still, this will be only until certain point when the spontaneous capitalist economy will absolutely inevitably develop into something much more efficient. This development is controlled and absolutely guaranteed. Look at the China's economy: even now it is more efficient than any other.
        What has happened with the stupid foreign capital in the USSR in 1924? Something like this will occur in the Marxist-Leninist China too.

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