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Sunrise Senior Living Inc. Message Board

  • retiredtechie retiredtechie Aug 14, 2010 12:07 AM Flag

    RT To SRZ Long Termers: Maintain Or Add To Your SRZ Position

    The general stock market remains our curse, but in time (by the fall election period), I believe it will correct back to the upside with good gains in all the major averages. Almost all of my 15 micro cap med-tech/bio-tech/healthcare portfolio stocks have back tracked to some degree in recent days and weeks. While its no fun to watch this happen, I know from long experience in the stock market (over 40+ years) that times like these are only normal when we are coming out of a recessionary period - - - and this one has been one of the most severe. The investment community at large continues to question the quality of our climb back to former levels of economic prosperity. That doubt should be recognized as a gift horse but its only a gift if you take the appropriate action. Personally, I have consistently viewed buying SRZ anywhere below $5.00/share as an excellent opportunity to guide yourself to good gains in either the shorter term through a buyout/takeover or via the longer term to what I call the promised land which is $20.00/share within 12 to 24 months. CEO Mark Ordan as witnessed by the recent Q2 report/conference call continues to make forward progress with his turnaround effort. From what I can see, we are fast approaching a final stage to that turnaround. I'm fully confident that we will either see a buyout/takeover in the shorter term (20% probability by year end 2010) or the other scenario would allow the company to continue on its own merits over the longer term (12 to 24 months) with increasingly better quarterly performance (80% probability). SRZ remains a "no brainer" from my point of view given what I believe will be short supply/high demand in the senior care niche within a few short years. Its shares are especially attractive at current pricing levels.

    Cheers and good investing,

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    • it always looks bad at the bottom and beautiful at the top...srz is for contrarians. admitted, past management ran it into the ground but it is nearly cleaned up. fidelity and its owners didnt buy 8 million shares for a short term trade. if you want to trade there are better alternatives. Ordan needs to make the last transaction in germany and maybe here,finish the law suit which might make srz money and then re finance and it is over. 36,000 residents paying monthly for top of the industry service

    • p.s. I, too, believe that SRZ is a good, though RISKY, play but would put the number at anything "below $3.00"...

    • the only challenge I see to your claims that the senior industry will see increased demand for SRZ services is that the trend is ALREADY in place (trending up) and demand is DROPPING for assisted living as the economy has changed peoples' consumer decision-making process, imo. Whereas 5 yrs ago I would have made the same argument as you, today it is a more challenging picture, business-wise. I will review the earnings report's occupancy %'s again, but see them dropping in the near-term without some sort of positive economic news.

      Today's seniors - by their very Depression-era nature - are frugal to begin with. The residential housing market decline, imo, has thrown a monkey wrench into growth estimates for assisted living because 1) it is primarily a private-pay customer base; and 2) reduced residential housing liquidity presents problems in accessing the nest egg that gives them the 'financial freedom' to pay long-term for the apartment/room. There are some creative ways (Elderlife loans, etc.) to account for a delay in sale of their primary residence, but I do not look for the housing market to turn around in the next few years.

      In addition, new assisted living facilities have cropped up over the past 10 years as more and more investors found it attractive to enter this industry (private paying client base, low overhead = high margins). With increased saturation in major markets, it complicates the occupancy challenges described, not only do you have a changed consumer but there are newer facilities providing the same services as SRZ. While I do not think the newer ones necessarily better meet the needs of residents, I do think Baby-Boomer adult children who have influence will want mom/dad choosing a 'nicer' place to live out their Golden Years.

      Regardless of what "CEO Mark Ordan" is able to accomplish as leader of the company, he does not/cannot control consumer confidence and the financial climate. A turnaround for SRZ needs much more than experienced leadership, imo; it needs an improved economy and increased confidence in the future among prospective clients - and the banks holding the debt.

      Good luck.

      • 1 Reply to loriskhireward
      • I have 3 friends who went into assisted living in the last 30 is not a matter of choice always/ in kentucky the new facility is over half full in the first 90 days. not all areas are over built. many older peolle paid under 100m for their home and dont care if they get 300m instead of 400m....generalizations are b s. r t has explained his fathers facility is full. with building dead what is there will fill up. many have long term care insurance as well . millions of policies were sold ... the bear story on long term care is untrue

    • spectre,
      I don't use my user name retarded_techie to make fun of people with disability's.I have more class than that.When it comes to general stock market I am a beginner.I don't have 40 years of experience like Retired_Techie.I wish I did,henceforth I am retarded.As for you not being to fond of Altoona,I suggest you go through bulls creek next time.
      Cheers and Beers

    • hi rt......srz is on track under the new management and wont go up til he finishes his job. the daily trading is not the issue for investors only for traders... there is not a lot to do to finish and I doubt seriously that Mark ordan will stay but will merge srz into the flagship for a competitor...once clean srz will be dramatically accretive and not only go for a premium but if in stock do even more as a boost to the buyer...thats the bull story

    • Apparently you've never been to Al's wings on the east coast. They'll take you to the promised land.

    • retarded:

      your not funny. Leave our board....and change your name. Its offensive to people with disabilities, say what you want about RT (you are open to your own opinion but the done use the word retarted.

      I was in Altoona once and i actually barfed in my mouth.

    • I'm not saying get rid of the Government,Just make it more efficient. Post Office would shut down ,Firefighters would be volunteer fighters and Police can get bent,We don't need them.Defend yourself is my motto.Medicare and Social security gone.Vote for Retired _Techie as President in 2012 You don't have to vote for Change like Mohammad.I call it overhauling,Welfare people will Go to work.Unemployment Gone.We don't need teachers neither I am retarded and I'm got more money than the Government.
      If I don't like, I cut it!!!
      Vote Retarded_Techie for Pres.
      Cheers and Beers

    • I would rather have the government controlling the Postal Services than turn it over to a bunch of internet vulchers who steal identies and sell personal information for their personal gain.

      Those people who like to bash the government services are parroting comments they have heard in political slogans and from company executives who would stand to profit from privitising government services.

      The healthcare services started as not for profit organizations. Now look what has happened to them after they were allowed to become for profit organizations!

      Public Services organizations should never be for profit organizations.

      The focus of for profit is to increase profits, not serve the needs of society.

      For profit works to make cars and things like stoves and household appliances and services in communications (etc). Even then they need to be government regulated. Look at what happened with BP in the Gulf Oil disaster.

      sandollor (:-:)

    • It wasn't meant to run Billions in debt neither.I would get rid of the post office,If I was President.I would give free internet to all and people could use web banking to pay there bills and use email to write letters.As for packages,Fed Ex or Ups.Tough times ,Tough measures.
      Cheers and Beers

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