Hello (to all the sane and sincere people on this board - you know who you are):
I've been following this board for over a year and slowly accumulating shares, occasionally making a small sale and then buying back in. I'm a professional economist (which gives me zero ability to say much about anything with any degree of confidence). Historically, over the years, I've dumped my savings into low cost mutual funds. My first foray into individual stocks was the purchase of some APPL just before the intro of the iPhone and then a double down when the iPhone antenna gate was in full swing. I sold it a week before the all time high to make a payment on a house. Bottom line: I was one lucky SOB. And so as to not be bragging, I went a bit back into APPL in the 550's and, well, OUCH. ZLCS is my first foray into pharma and I'm down a good bit, but that's the game and I know the risk. A few thoughts: the odds of ZLCS hitting it big w Z160 are probably far far less than 50/50, but I'm quite confident the expected return (as in if the odds were played out in simulations over and over again, and it were not a single event) is far greater than the current PPS (so is a lottery ticket every once in a while when the jackpot grows bigger than the reciprocal odds of a win -- you will almost certainly loose but the expected value of your ticket is greater than a buck, making it a "good" bet). Plus, I view Z160 as potentially a very positive social event, w.r.t. being able to move from opiates if it works. And to me, that's worth some support simply for the cause. Anyway, thanks for sharing your thoughts and insights this last year....
There are good bets and bad bets. When the expected value of the payoff is greater than the bet it's a good bet. You may still loose, but it's a bet you'd expect to win if you played the bet over and over again. Z may be a low probability event, but that does not imply it's a bad bet.
Beware of the PUMPERS. They'll have you believing this stock is the next best thing to sliced bread. ZLCS has been pumped long & hard here. Look at the history, down, down, down. Exalgo news couldn't even lift this.
What kind of BS is this? What your telling use is we have less than 50% chance to succeed?
It makes no sense to me why you would accumlate Z shares acknowledging that the probabilities
are less than 50% to succeed.
First statement is you have been following the board over a year (Jan 2012) and accumlating shares of Z.
Yet further into the topic your " first foray into individual stock was APPL which would have been Aug 2012 before intro to iphone5 release which was on September 7,2012."
Shares of APPL Aug.31,2012 were $665 and on Sept 7,2012 $680 high Sept 19th $702
Week before high Sept 12th $669 you made $4 per share. What is some shares? 80x4=$320.
You bought 80shares x 665=$53,200 -sold 80x669=$53,520=$320
If you needed $1200 payment div $4=300 shares at $665=$199,500
I don't think so.
A I do not believe you bought any APPL shares or Z shares I do not get it why the post ?
Re-read my post. The iPhone came out in June 2007. PPS was ~125. During the iPhone 4 snafu the PPS was ~250. Sold it in 2012 to make a house payment -- as in a 20% down payment on a 3.5% 30 year fixed. Since then I've lost on APPL after buying back in at 550. Hope this clarifies. As for Z's chance to succeed, yes, it's probably less than 50%, if so, I loose what I've got. It it hits I likely make way more than what I'd loose, so the expected value is probably make it a good bet. Would you pay a dollar for a coin flip where heads you get nothing and tails you get three bucks? The expectation in this example is that you'd make $1.50 on your flip, so it's a good bet.