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Zalicus AŞ Message Board

  • dotcom55 Nov 5, 2013 2:44 AM Flag

    Time to Market if both Z160 Tests are OK

    JAson Napodano wrote in his last article on SA : ".. For example, going 2-for-2 in these Phase IIa studies means the drug can probably capture 25% of the market from Lyrica and generic gabapentin. That pegs peak worldwide sales in the area of $1.5 billion. Under that scenario, Zalicus' stock will skyrocket on the news. Specifically, if we peg Z160 sales at $1.5 billion in 10 years (assumes 6 years to approval and then 4 years to peak sales), give the drug a 30% chance at success, apply a conservative 3.0x price-to-sales multiple to that figure, discount back to present day at 15%, and then divide that number by the current outstanding share count of 24.6 million, we get a stock price of $14. "

    I think that the 6 years for approval should be an overstatement, in consideration of the Orphan Drug State and the recent FDA stance against opioid. Am I wrong?

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • two days, but it will take Z 37 months to announce it....

    • When Z160 results are shown positive, the FDA should make this their pet project. This is big news and eventually rids the market of opiates

    • No, you're not wrong.

      Z160 will be much MUCH faster for reaching the market.

      Orhan Drug Designation - Fast Track - Market in 2015

      When Z160 is on market any other indication will go through additional NdA.

      Jason knows that but he lied shamelessly in his article.
      More than that yesterday he tweeted jokes, because of jokes we're talking about what he wrote yesterday..

      Rationally thinking, because of the HUGE POTENTIAL someone want to be in huge at the cheapest..

      In few weeks ZLCS is going to skyrocket $25 is my guess

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to jrobert_09
      • correct most likely even higher

      • Are U on drugs? This thing still needs to get approvals for PIII and maybe even more money (provided PII data are acceptable), recruiting, go through PIII, data analysis, submission of the NDA yadda yadda yadda. We are already at the beginning of 2014 and you think that all this including FDA approval of the manufacturing facility and quality controls etc. is gonna take place in the next 12-24 months???? I don't think so. In this instance, you need to focus on the journey and not the prize. The hurdle before us is a successful PII...take it one step at a time. Even if all the stars align and the ducks are in order...12-24 months is a pipe dream...not even on the radar screen.