% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • insight4ever insight4ever Apr 2, 2003 4:11 AM Flag

    hear that train coming down the tracks?

    Some good news as NLS continues its base building:

    On Yahoo research page, "current broker recommendations" went from 1 / 0 / 4 / 2 / 0 to 1 / 1 / 4 / 2 / 0.

    4 straight days of volume above 500,000 for the first time since Nov. 4th (good news as it's been more up than down volume).

    IBD Rel Strngth measure: first time I've seen NLS hit above single digits or teens in months (at 20 tonight).

    For YTD relative price it's +12% vs SP500, +6% vs NASDQ100, +14 vs Russell 2000.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Rikardovitch, you ask:

      <<So how much did NLS spend on R&D last year? How much will they spend this year?>>

      I don�t know the $$ amounts, but read on �

      I assume you asked because I said:

      <<� it's far better (for increasing shareholder value over the long-term) to increase R&D, [etc., etc.] � NLS has done all those things �>>

      It�s more obvious than simply knowing the actual $$�s spent. You know that kind of detail isn�t publicly available. Plainly and simply, NLS dramatically (and synergisticly) enhanced its R&D capabilities when it spent $69.8 million in 2001 to acquire Schwinn.

      I think I�m on sound ground to state that NLS has increased its R&D. That�s all I said. I didn�t claim to know specific numbers. But thanks for keeping me on my toes. In other instances I do overreach.

    • "hear that train coming down the tracks?"

      i think what your'e hearing is the train comming off the track!!!!! first quarters earning will derail it for sure!!!

      • 2 Replies to fleabag22
      • fleabag22:
        "i think what your'e hearing is the train comming off the track!!!!! first quarters earning will derail it for sure!!!"

        You are completely right on this one. NLS is is huge trouble, let's review:

        1. Almost 90% of it's earnings are from Bowflex.
        2. Margins are being squeezed (therefore lowering profits) as they shift to retail space to increase units sold.
        3. There is no forseeable replacement for the Bowflex, the trendclimber is an unlikely choice.
        4. The economy is bad and people are paying down debt and not buying as many 'things' as when the economy was good.
        5. The rods come off patent in April 2004. This is a serious problem. We are talking knockoffs at a discount. It will majorly eat into profits.
        6. All of things I mentioned will have a compound effect. Watch the dividend rise to 5%+, as the stock tanks. It may not happen this quarter, but this baby is headed down.

        Disclosure: I never have, and never will short this stock, it's not my bag.

      • flea, you said:

        <<first quarters earning will derail it for sure!!!>>

        A casual comment I suspect. Flea, tossing a bomb, just for the fun of it.

        Let's check / discuss some FACTS:

        The consensus estimate (same with Zacks and Yahoo research) is tight, with high of 0.66 and low of 0.64, and consensus of 0.65.

        It hasn't changed for at least 60 days.

        One factor alot of people might be missing is the impact of prior buybacks. Looking at the 2/6/03 8-K, the 12/31/01 diluted shares outstanding was 35,793,531; for 12/31/02 it is 33,470,373. Clearly at this point it takes less earnings to produce the same level of EPS.

        Of course, in the current economy, with companies reducing sales' forecasts, anything is possible. I think NLS learned its lesson (for years to come) last 10/15 to never surprise the market with bad news. Now they know to provide any major bad news as early as possible, in mulitiple stages, and with some counter moves juxtaposed.

        If we don't hear anything from NLS 7 to 10 days prior to April 15th, I think it gurantees that the worst case will be a ho hum boring earnings release.

        And with so much else working to the positive for NLS these days, its steady upward base building will continue, preparing the foundation for that flash of a day that all NLS shorts fear.

    • "4 straight days of volume above 500,000 ..."

      ... and the price has essentially gone nowhere.

      "IBD Rel Strngth measure: first time I've seen NLS hit above single digits or teens in months (at 20 tonight)."

      80 or better is considered a "good" value.

23.40-0.07(-0.30%)Sep 28 4:02 PMEDT