Going to make more grandiose claims on a different board now? I have my money in SPY, MO, and TLT now. Too bad SPY and TLT have no board. You could come along, short MO, and tell us longs how dumb we are to invest in tobacco. Or something to that effect.
>the difference is, at 21 you think you've >finally got the world all sussed out. at 35, >you finally realize you know nothing.
>>sussed ... whatever that is
Narcissism -- the feeling that the inside of one's own mind is Paradise, and that new knowledge is inherently bad -- gets kinda difficult to maintain as one grows older. One benefit is that learning becomes possible.
For example, you saw a new word today. Are you happy with your reaction to it? Are you a student? Or not?
<<Act like a child and you'll be treated as a child.>>
It's funny how when you're confronted as the bull$hit artist you are, you fall back on pathetic personal slights such as that. You know damn well I never claimed to have "future financial results," but since you can't actually ARGUE with me on a level basis, you just made it up to look good.
Perhaps you should take your own advice there, Newbie.
<<Cut the clowning.>>
Yes, o ringmaster.
<<You didn't do a "discounted future earnings analysis",>>
I didn't say I had with SPY. I said I had with MO. SPY...MO...two different things. I own SPY for...I don't really know why I own SPY. It made sense at one point. IE, owning equities without bankruptcy risk.
<<You did not go through the filings of 500 corporations.>>
You're right. I went through the Standard and Poors website to find their annual report on the index. But, what would they know. You know much better, don't you?
After all, you're a PROFESSIONAL!
Cut the clowning. You didn't do a "discounted future earnings analysis", you are using earnings forecasts. You did not go through the filings of 500 corporations. It just sounds better for an index trader to say "the s&p 500 P/E is recovering from >30 trailing to <20 leading" than to say "the forecasts are bullshit". It means about the same thing though.
Do you think this isn't obvious to everyone else on the board (bee excepted)?
Your only valid point is the bankruptcy protection. And, if you look, a real-world trailing P/E in the mid-30s corresponds roughly to the 10-year bond rate. If you're willing to move on something like that time scale, and if your SPY shares run 0.3% or less in management costs, then yeah, it's probably fine. But don't boast about your investing acumen and experience until you can give a bullshit-free explanation of why you're in an index fund.