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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Aug 14, 2003 11:31 AM Flag

    quick earnings analysis

    Little a: I have zero hope that you'll own up to your message. I won't be responding any further to your attempts at "damage control" --if you don't like the text you posted, I can only suggest that you think twice before you post in the future.

    Anyone else who really gives a crap (if anyone!):
    This message is a response to "little a's" original "high intrinsic value --> sell the stock" message. Simply click on the "reply-to" link below to see his post.

    Notice that "little a" used a "Sell" sentiment on the message.

    But within the message, "little a" calculated an intrinsic $16.50 per share. (He also neglected cash that would bring total above $18 per share.) Stock was trading somewhere around $11, so intrinsic was 50% to 70% higher than market.

    Initially I assumed that "little a" intended a bullish sentiment, as he was posting a high intrinsic value w.r.t. share price. Simple, eh?

    But he objected bitterly to my kind assumption, so I'm left with his paradoxical original text. Despite his continued efforts to wriggle out of what he posted, I'm back to this unkind but quite accurate paraphrase of little a's post:

    >sell this stock, it has high intrinsic value.

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    • here are the vertical ratios I usually check on the Statement of incomes:

      Total Revenue $129,449,000 $155,463,000 $152,865,000 $140,408,000
      Cost Of Revenue $59,502,000 45.97% $72,444,000 46.60% $64,500,000 42.19% $56,639,000 40.34%
      Gross Profit $69,947,000 54.03% $83,019,000 53.40% $88,365,000 57.81% $83,769,000 59.66%
      Net Income Applicable To Common Shares $13,689,000 10.57% $23,044,000 14.82% $25,059,000 16.39% $25,826,000 18.39%

      The Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is going down steadilly related to the total revenue. This is due to the sales going down and a good managed company in 2-3 quarters would reverse the Cost Of Revenue associated ratio.

      Am I wrong by saying this is too soon to say they are in trouble or not?

      Thank you

    • Holy crap man, I did not make any claim that NLS had an intrinsic value of $16.50 a share. I said NLS has NO CERTAIN intrinsic value, and that investors obviously aren't betting on any "value" based on current forecasts. QUOTE WHERE I CLAIMED OTHERWISE. Oh, no, wait, you don't play that game. Who cares about "facts" when you can live in your own world of lies and misconstrued bullshit.

      And you do not know what a paraphrase is. That's laughable.

      My consolation lies in the knowledge that your arrogance is bankrupting you as we speak.

    • Question:

      Cash Flows From Operating Activities $19,165,000 $22,760,000
      Cash Flows From Investing Activities $14,048,000 $1,355,000
      Change In Cash And Cash Equivalents $28,696,000 ($6,141,000)

      Isn't strange that NLS cash flow from operations is down, cash flow from investing is soooo up? If it would not be the cashflow from investing, they would have another negative cash flow.

      Just an observation.
      Anyone has any comment on that?

      Thank you

21.09-0.20(-0.94%)Aug 24 4:02 PMEDT