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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • successful_01 successful_01 Sep 19, 2003 8:41 PM Flag

    NLS Short interest 7.08 million @ 9/15


    9/15/2003 7,087,243
    8/15/2003 7,779,734
    % Chg -8.90

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    • bravegive --
      Yeah, but don't forget their $2 per share in cash. That brings the forecast P/E down to 10 net of cash acquired. Given the low interest rates these days, net present values are high so a P/E of 10 is a decent discount (imo).

      And all that $1.05 stuff misses the fact that 2000, 2001 and 2002 earnings averaged something like $1.70 per share. So I asked myself: which is the better predictor of the next decade's earnings, 2003 forecasts or trailing 3-year earnings?

      It's a matter of opinion of course ... I personally put forecasts in the "PR" bin along with hype about what Bill Miller is doing, lists of "hot stocks" and glossy pictures of minority employees. None of that goes 'ka-ching' to me.

      Certainly other arguments can be made.

    • astral,

      2Q02 = $.72
      3Q02 = $.71
      4Q02 = $.69
      1Q03 = $.42
      2Q03 = $.14
      3Q03 guidance = $.21
      4Q03 guidance = $.28

      OK, I see your point. By the end of 2003 they will have earned $1.05. A PE of 12 is fair for a solid company with low growth. As I said before, no compelling reason to short or buy it.

    • Yeah, so long as you don't use the P/E of NLS, it's possible for NLS to appear quite expensive (or quite cheap, for that matter).

      I take a different approach, focusing on the P/E of the actual stock I'm considering purchasing.

    • Thats a good point.

      The average PE for this industry(retail) is 27 right now. So working backwards from the price would indicate the market expects earnings of $0.12 per quarter.

      Since the last quarter was only $.14 and the Dividend was $0.10, if this continues there will be no gorwth at all.

      My broker says the next 4Qs of earnings are expect to be between $.59 and $.96, depending on who you ask. I like to use a PE of 10 for solid, no growth companies, so $6 to $10 would make me a buyer.

      If the market wants to use a PE of 27 then $18-$29 is possible.

      I think a PE of 27 is too risky, but I also bought gold in 4Q 1998 while all my friends got rich on internet stocks with uncalculatable PEs because there were no earnings in 4Q 1998 and 1999 and 1Q2000. Of course most of them don't like discussing stocks much now because they forgot to sell in 2Q02.

    • Thanks for your response, bravegive.

      And thanks for acknowledging that your "not cheap" P/E ratio didn't come from NLS at all, but from an index. (For what it's worth, I agree that the S&P 500 is not cheap!)

      Even if (as you suggest, and despite normal end-weighting of sales figures for this company) 1H'03 earnings continue unchanged, that's $1.12 annually and a 'forward' P/E just under 12.

    • FYI: The short interest is the amount actually short on the 8th of the month which is reported on the 15th and diseminated to the public on about the 20th.

      • 1 Reply to rikardovitch
      • This is positive movement. I never like to bet against strong short interest. Here you have shorts slowly moving away from a stock as it continues to recover. This is a positive negative in my mind. Great to see them slowly leaving but concerning that they are still around.

        If this continues the price will continue to rise. Chicken or the egg though. Rise causing covering, covering causing rise.

        Personally I am looking forward to the next few months. Many interesting stocks out there. Boring Sundays.

    • Look like the signficant increase volume during this past week was institutional buying.

      Still plenty of upside, with any positive sales/ eps news.

      $20 is a no brainer. Look at Steelcase.100% increase from 52 weeks low.

20.00-0.45(-2.20%)Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT