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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • tekstockwatcher tekstockwatcher Feb 16, 2006 1:47 PM Flag

    NLS is going to $22-$24 range 90 days


    NLS with growth of 20% in future (after recent issues resolved) should have forward P/E of 20/25 and we shall see $22-$24.
    In near term should trade $20.
    It is still value play.
    NTRI has such a high P/E and stock skyrocket.

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    • exactly right. and innovative as a term for ellipticals and the treadclimber is not exactly an accurate term for them. consider that probably every single competitor has had an ellipitical for the past 4 years(?). unless somebody didn't tell me and the physics of an ellipse has changed, i would say that everyone is working on the same thing. as for the Treadclimber, i would imagine that since it has been out to the public for 2 years now that the "innovative" tag should be removed. Nautilus should be more worried about having someone knock off that design, a la CrossBow.

    • I went back and listened to the CC...a couple of things struck me.

      The six new product are 2 treadmills (1 retail and 1 commercial), 2 ellipticals (1 retail and 1 commercial), and 2 treadclimbers (1 retail and 1 commercial). Seconds after mentioning customers with "bundled orders" were forced to work with competitors Gregg mentions that there were several other ellipticalls/treadmills/treadclimbers that were working just fine. You could say that the customers were forced to a competitor because the "innovative" products were not available, but if they are so innovative how could a competitor have anything similar? Also, I find it very hard to beleive that in a company stacked with various models of treadmills/ellipticalls/treadclimbers, a few specific retail/commercial products could have that much effect on sales, and that the other products within each category couldn't be used to fill the "bundled" orders.

      IMHO, "bundling" and inability to roll out the new products is a weak excuse.

    • Er ... a P/E of 20 would take the stock down to $14. Forward P/E of 20, assuming earnings continue to fall 10% to 30% per year, would take share price down to $10-$13.

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