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Longwei Petroleum Investment Holding Limited Message Board

  • cb_wilson cb_wilson Jun 21, 2011 9:49 AM Flag

    More interesting Chen coverage

    Chen makes a good point in this latest article, and one that in my opinion could potentially change the current CGS paradigm very quickly. We can debate about specific LPH catalysts all day long, but if and when some group decides to start "taking out" the ridiculously beaten down high performers, this whole situation will turn on a dime. Add to that the charges pending on Muddy Waters, and we are starting to see the earliest stages of what is likely to be the next bull run up in these markets. With all the groundwork that LPH is laying, and the amount of press they have received, I would not be surprised to see it and a few others become the new "darlings" of the sector.

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    • nice rant, Pace is a blue collar commuter college on Long Island. hardscrabble. The Greeks have been raping each other for 5000 years - nothing new there. Have you been to Greece? There is no work ethic.

    • Interesting is right. His blogs are turning into must-reads for all aspiring comedians:

      "...With your stock trading at such low multiple to book value and next twelve month EPS, some institutions should be interested to take significant position in the stocks as a value investment. Have you talked to some big I-banks/funds regarding taking a high stake in your stock?..."

      He's going to ask TOUPS a leading question like that? Chen is starting to sound like Gentry. Gee... I wonder how Toups will answer???

      "...Is the board of direct investigating the possibility of working with lenders to take the company private maybe at 100% premium to correct stock price..."

      WTF? What kind of question is THAT? 100% permium? 'correct' the stock price? Well, *there's* an unbiased analyst if I ever saw one! And someone please tell Chen that the BOD is suppose to work for the EXISTING owners: LPH shareholders. They would approve the sale to someone ELSE, not buy it themselves. <sigh!> Well, maybe in Longwei's case...

      "...and later sell to other buyers or list in other exchanges at a higher valuation multiple?..."

      Chen simply answered his own question: could the BOD(!) make a quick buck by flipping the *stock* after a buyout. Hmmm - apparently not interested in all at the possibility of the BOD or Cai simply running the company for profit after a buyout.

      "...Will the board consider a buyout offer from an institution or private group at, say, 100% - 200% premium over current stock price?..."

      Translated: please make up a fantasy valuation in your answer to replace the "100 - 200% premium' so longs can bleat this as 'proof' of the company's actual value!

      "...Has the board considered making an IPO of the stock in Hong Kong or Shanghai stock exchange (due listing) since many comparables to your stock are trading at P/Es of 15 – 20 on those exchanges?..."

      First of all, LPH would never qualify - that's what they're doin on a U.S. exchange! Second of all, printing more shares at *ANY* other exchange is dilution whether knuckle-draggers realize it or not. Selling a billion shares on the HK exchange does not result in buckets of FREE MONEY for American knuckle-draggers. It only results in a huge chunk of your share value being chopped off and sold to someone else. Is your resulting 'tiny' piece more fairly valued? Who cares... Cai just royally scr#wed you.

      • 2 Replies to morepaveway3s
      • Paver, I'm starting to catch a whiff of desperation in your posts. They are no longer arguments or opinions, but simply contradictions. That does not qualify in your quest to be contrarian of the year by the way.

        There are 3 things really that you are missing (on purpose?) in Chen's opinions;

        1) Management (or other) buy out/ Arbitrage - could happen, and could take many different forms. Read up on a few.

        2) Dual listing - check out the rules to list on Hang Seng. They absolutely could qualify, and quite easily.

        3) Industry comparables - See if you can get a copy of R&R's report and check out the valuation multiples of comparable companies. They are 14 - 18x.

        I'm gonna go out on a limb here and pay attention to what the CFA's and their firms publish, rather than your contradictory drivel. Next you'll have Sinopec delivering "virtual gas" into Shanxi....what a clown.

    • I like Chen's probability of arbitrage:

      "at current price level the probability of at least one of the discussed arbitration plan being executed is very real and material – at least 40% in any given month by my estimate."

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