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  • jonofrisco jonofrisco Aug 10, 2011 12:59 PM Flag

    My thoughts on HOGS

    A few weeks ago the short sellers were saying this company was a fraud and Muddy Waters was going to hit them with a bad report. We have gone through a meltdown of the DOW and HOGS has held up comparatively well. If the shorters were sure of themselves this stock would be at 5 by now. I think the shorters create their own market and have moved on to other targets which makes me think this stock should rise a lot in the longer term.

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    • dupont, when the government closes down Zhongpin's competitors they will sell more even if prices are higher due to the inelasticity of pork demand.

      Ironically capitalists and communists working hand in hand can be a beautiful thing if you're long HOGS.

    • The recent quaterly results were eye popping.
      •Revenues increased 70%
      •Diluted earnings per share increased 37%

      1 item in stark contrast to these results was total metric tons sold.
      Revenue/Sales $ comes from products sold for HOGS.
      Earnings come from revenue. A scrutiny of the 2nd qtr 2011 10Q raised this issue with me.

      The 2nd qtr 2011 total metric tons sold only increased 6.39% more than 2nd qtr 2010.
      A 6.39% increase in tonnage yielded 70% revenue and 37% earnings increase.
      The margins don't justify that, but pork inflation might.
      The real sales growth was 6.39% IMHO...
      Hogs is still undervalued by 30% if a future 6.39% sales/eps growth rate is estimated...

    • I am curious as to why HOGS did not react to earnings news and favorable projections more positively. The stock is only up 3.53% from yesterday's close so far.

      I would have expected HOGS to have gone up 20% with huge volume. I guess skepticism is still out there.

    • There was also genuine concern, put to bed. The market has sold off 15% and HOGS manages less than that on the big pullback.

      It says a lot for the resilience of the company and the folks that believe in it.

      I must say, my misgivings were not validated by the market.

    • absolutely, HOGS management stepped up to defend big time. Man i panicked there for a second with CER and their lies, but i'm back to long and strong HOGS, they have made me $$$ several times over the last few years. Sub 9 = gift.