not easy share all 24 jan 06 reuters report on ILI? everybody read it?
below is pasted a little bit...
Fundamental Quality Component: Underperform
This rating is based on characteristics traditionally associated with "good" companies. We focus on how each company
measures up against others, and give careful attention to recent improvement or slippage relative to other companies.
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
TTM Return on Investment: Very Negative
Improvement in TTM Return on Investment: Very Negative
TTM Pretax Margin: Neutral
Improvement in TTM Pretax Margin: Neutral
Depreciation in Excess of Capital Spending Needs: Negative
Issuance/Repurchase of Common Shares: Negative
Common Shares Dilution: Positive
Presence/Absence of Unusual Income Items: Neutral
For a 'scientist' (your profile), you are fantastically innumerate. Class is now in session - listen up.
- Revenue of 232k
- Two tests, one retailling at 99, one at 199
- Six weeks of sales, four of which were limited to less than 10% of the Alticor force
- Each test sold equally well
- None of the other pipeline products contributed
- Royalty range from Alticor to ILI is between 40% and 60%
The number of kits sold varies from ~2600 (60% margin) to ~3900 (40%). Your number of kits sold are off by at least a factor of two.
Straight line projection of future revenues based on this single data point (risky of course) would indicate an annual revenue of $1,924,545 (232k/44 days*365 days), but, since the first four weeks of marketing were to a very limited number of Alticor reps, that is probably understating it quite a bit
My guess (and that is all one can do from a single data point) If we take the first four weeks of sales, assign it a conservative number of 30% of full roll-out marketing, you come up with monthly kit sales around 5000. Combine that with ILI�s stated margin of 50%, and you get around $4.5 million annually.
I cannot believe you are so unable to run simple numbers like this. Do you actually read these posts? If your analysis is any indication of your numerical abilities, my only guess is you are employed by some junk science group like PIRG.
Oh, and thank you so much for fulfilling my Gresham�s Law prophecy so quickly! But, as you can see, good has won this quarter. Now, better go back and hit those algebra books.
Finally an intelligent analysis. This company has gone from developmental to income producing in the first quarter. If anyone was looking for revenues to be in the millions they are overly optimistic.
This first quarter or really first month was a ramp-up period. I think it is a great performance considering we had zero product driven revenues previously. For me the projected Gross Profit is the story
I think anyone who is making broad projections based on one opening month of processing tests is foolish. We still know very little about this business and its plans. Hopefully we will find out more soon. As we know, ILI does not give out press releases. Im more interested in revenues for a full quarter, not a third of a quarter.
I dont think its a good idea to make any assumptions based on Shins "fuzzy math".
Shin- You want everything to make sense for you but as usual it doesnt. ILI doesnt get 200 for each test, obviously most of it goes to alticor. Fuzzy math as usual.
Go hold a ticker tape parade for yourself in your tenement somewhere in the Boston slums. This stock is up almost double since January and you are still a poor loser.
"wow - that was a very disappointing set of results for the quarter"
check my math:
* 232k revenue for 1st qtr (don't know where numbers came from but let's assume they are right)
* they charge roughly $200 per genetic test (which according to panelists here is all pocketed by ili...)
* 232,000/200 = 1,160 kits sold
* launch was in march so only one month accounted in 1st qtr = 1,160 kits/month
* $ 2.8 million in revenue for the year
yikes! WEAK! this one trick pony better start looking fast for something else to do...