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Aircastle LTD Message Board

  • r_venturi r_venturi May 2, 2008 5:20 PM Flag

    Term Deal Consumated ... DIV has to be coming back

    With the term deal completed ... DIV should pop back

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    • Shorts took a bath this morning and there's more holdouts on shorts than longs ATM. Looks like shorting-to-zero didn't work out.

      Great upward move for one day. The way I see it, there's plenty of room because earnings comes out soon, and short interest is coming due with people holding on quite a lot on the short side (shockingly so). Short days to cover is pretty lean, and we just crossed the 50 day MA, causing some chartists to take notice.

      I don't see this moving down for a bit. I think horizontal or up for roughly 12 business days out. I think we've got about 9 ups and 3 downs during that time (guessing of course). It looks like a chartists perfect storm, so that will get a few people excited and in quickly.

      It does look a mild short-squeeze at the moment. Watch for a wild option expiration.


    • I am new to this board. As a retiree, is this a good choice to invest in? Are there any dividends currently?

      • 3 Replies to ebartsch2000
      • You should do your own diligence work,
        There is a good article in Forbes on landlord of the skies,you can read it online at
        It is about GLS,another leaasing company but it gives you some choices like AYR,AIR,AER.
        They cut their dividend from 75 cents to 25 cents recently ,not because they dont have the cash,but due to the recent financial blowup,lenders have tightened their lending and raise their fee,you should find the article under AYR headline news-basically Bear Stearn which was one of the 3 lenders is no more.

      • dekegray May 5, 2008 5:15 PM Flag

        I think AYR would be a good investment for a retiree, at least for the next few years. The stock is basically trading at its book value right now. It should only go up. The firm's credit problem has been solved, at least temporarily. The company has a history of paying significant dividends. So, it probably will raise its dividend rate at some point. Fly with AYR! I've been long on it since March 2008.

      • Personally I would not ask the opinion of people on these message boards because they are filled with pumpers and bashers. You will hear both answers.

        However, it does have a dividend and if you have "spare" cash it would be a fun investment. Look at the charts and you can see what might happen to money thrown at the stock.

    • I think this is incredible news for the longs on AYR (of which I am one). We've been waiting for good news for a while and this is proof positive that the company is not going under IMHO. I never saw solid proof the company was in jeopardy save the possibility they got wrapped up in the 'liquidity crisis'. It seemed to me there were banks outside of the country to re-secure the credit line if need be.

      I don't think $20's is unrealistic, and while I hope for a pop here, I don't expect one. We should get a good ride tomorrow but it's a long way up from here :)

      Pray for good news at the quarterly as that will feed the flame a bit, and the short interest ratio is only in the 4 day range. I'm not sure we'll see a short squeeze per se, but I'm pretty happy to hold this one for the months or maybe 1+ year to recover.

      After this ride, I'm tempted to just get out at my basis (roughly $20.00) but I do think this has the chance to go further. I'm not counting on the dividend coming back for at least six months, but that's just me :)

      Who knows, slow ride to 20's somewhere, then a pop when divi gets back in place in 18 months? Just guessing of course, but I do see the outside chance for 30s in the next 12 months.

      Current plan is to guestimate an exit in the mid 20s to low 30s in 6 to 18 months.

      Grats to longs, and here's to hoping I'm right :)


    • I agree. This stock is way undervalued now.

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