It has become obvious that in September a lot of bad things happened - much worse and much quicker that I imagined in the overseas markets. This couple with the first of the BK was most likely responsible for the big drop in the shares. Now with the obvious news that AYR is taking back at least 7 planes(and AYR has still not posted anything) what are we missing that the stock price is actually going up. On a macro basis - the emerging markets have clearly turned around in the market(possibly predicting a turnaround in 6 months). The clarity of these stocks(obviously imagined by me) is now pretty muddy. Is it the macro picture pushing the stocks up - or is it that the bad news is already factored in - or does someone know that their is lots of demand for these planes so it is not something to worry about. Because we are definitely in the dark about fundamentals - I am thinking I need to play the charts. Of course open to all opinions that have some kind of fundamentals or logic behind them. Crystal balls go on ignore.
I believe that with fuel prices down and credit markets loosening we have seen about the last of the airline bk's. Maybe 1 or 2 more that have been so weakened that the upturn is too little too late. The question is how many planes have come available at the same time and how much this will drive down the value of thoe planes on both a leasing or an outright sale basis. This will be temporary however if the upturn continues. And six months down the road all of the planes will be absorbed and AYR will prosper once again. I sill maintain that AYR will strive to hold their dividend at 10-12% resulting in a .15 per quarter dividend. This last prediction might be crystal ball territory-Obama might seaize all planes for the Socialist States of America. LOL
Have you ever heard the phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats"? Market was up 11% last week, the largest percentage gain since 1974. This one has gone from 31 to 5 in a year and rallies around 11% for the week. Earnings will tell. If they keeep the dividend even remotely near current levels this one should continue to rally provided the market doesn't fall apart again...
Just because we are off the bottoms(talking general markets here) does not signal me a rising tide. At this point only a trading range above the bottom. Could it be the market only - could be - but I doubt it.