I've seen estimates of $15 per share, if Transcept gets its FDA approval. Does anyone concur with this estimate or have any other informed opinions. Also, could the stock price increase after FDA approval be already "baked-in" to the current price? It seems as if TSPT has increased significantly already.
The latest FDA approval that I've watched, FCSC, went up about 20% for about 4 seconds then dropped like a rock. IMO it has to do with companies' ability to bring drug to market without dilution and of course the pricing and profit of drug. Also, optr dropped although they have a distribution agreement in place so who knows. I think optr will rise again upon news of drug coming to market. IMO. I know those 2 taught me a lesson about loading up on a stock right before FDA approval. I like tspt's drug though and think it will be approved perhaps with a strongly worded label about not taking drug for 4 hours preceding driving etc.
It's a general pull back of the market, not just TSPT, after last weeks gains... If they receive a CRL, it would not be announced until the 14th. as well, so it doesn't become less risky as we approach that date.
Betting on approval for your profit is always risky. I think that on this stock it is highly likely to get approved, however you will be under water for no less than 3 months and more likely 6 months if CRL is issued.
If you can make that commitment this would be a good bet.
If not look for the next small bio to get behind earlier.
I wasn't lucky enough to get in at around $6. Tomorrow should be interesting.
I am still following sentiment through Twitter, and a few people keep talking about buying in after a "pull back". If TSPT gets a CRL, then buying in at such a pull back would be pre-mature, since the stock price could drop 50 percent. If TSPT does not get a CRL and we edge closer to the PDUFA, then we shouldn't see a pull back, since risk diminishes as we get closer to July 14th.
I don't know what "pull back" these tweeter'rs are hoping for?
When investing in small bio's a good plan is to only hold over the FDA date with shares that your cost basis is as low as the lowest price the stock would reach if the FDA issues a CRL and not approval.
This usually means you would have been in the stock for enough time to have seen a substanical increase in share price.
I believe a CRL would sent this stock to the $6 range.
Approval is another matter however. I know there will be a substanical rise but too what level ??
This is not your high profile bio like VVUS. The daily trading action is limited so the after the FDA approval trading could be just as limited or rocket up because others want in and no shares are available.
50% is a safe bet. Could it be higher, it could be but how much I don't know.
You make a good point. I guess the quandary is what the stock price does after July 14th or even a few days prior to July 14th. On Nasdaq's website, under "sentiment" of TSPT, many Tweeters are saying that they are going to sell right before the PDUFA date. This is interesting assuming that the stock price should increase on objective news like a FDA approval. I don't know if they are indirectly manipulating "weak-hand" behavior or if they know that there will be a sell-off after such good news.
I am trying to find an example or benchmark, but most small cap bio-stocks that get FDA approval usually gain price increases.