>>The probabilities of a successful launch far outweigh a disaster. If everyone expects a successful launch everyone also expects the resultant vaguely projected profit potential will result. It is priced in.<<
The probability of a disaster is low, but the cost to the company would be astronomical. In making the calculation you are discussing you would want to factor in the consequences of success and failure, not just probabilities.
I don't know what the stock has priced in, but it is clear from the put premiums that there is a LOT of uncertainty built in there, at least. I sold 17.50's for 1.10(!) last week, and IMO the perfect scenario would be for this launch to be delayed until after options expire (with a subsequent successful launch) so we could sell another batch of these pumped up contracts. Implied volatility for those is up in the 180's--way, way above the historical numbers for these.
What is the Google contract worth?
Are you assuming that the true earning will be that of the current estimates (forward PE over 40)? LOL...That they will not beat 07 eps with ease...rolflmao.
NOT...BTW isn't there a 31 million dollar reversal coming in Q308?
Do you really believe that earning and revenue have dried up (post launch)?
Keep shorting...time will tell.
short interest is not predicated upon a successful launch but rather the subsequent revenue and profit potential. They seemed to fall a bit short of that potential the last two quarters. But I know,,, all they need is a successful launch and the profits will roll in. lol
So then, let me guess...I should short the stock upon a successful launch since you seem to think that its very implausible for the stock to gain any upward traction on a good launch...Your assertion is laughable
A.) No, not everyone expects a successful launch - as short interest in this stock is very high and put premiums are through the roof attest to
B.) As such, a successful launch is nowhere near priced in. This bird is not in the air. As long as it is on the ground, future cash flows carry with them inherently greater uncertainty. Wall Street as a forward pricing mechanism then lowers the price of the stock accordingly.
Explain the short interest? Seems to me that many are betting against it?
The catlyst for this stock will be after the first images come in.
11 days to cover, I have to assume you are one of the shorts.
Mistaken? But why? Everyone Expects a successful launch. The probabilities of a successful launch far outweigh a disaster. If everyone expects a successful launch everyone also expects the resultant vaguely projected profit potential will result. It is priced in. Don't ask me, ask your broker or the ex-broker here. lol