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Orbital Sciences Corp. Message Board

  • mcrf52 mcrf52 Aug 5, 2013 5:33 PM Flag

    Here we go again......

    19 close is the highest since May 2011. In March of 2011, ORB hit the 19 level for the first time in two years, after the Feb 2009 launch failure of the Taurus XL. In 2011, the stock was again poised to go higher until the second failure of the same rocket. It hung on to the 19's until May on the strength of a large Missle Defense contract, but could no longer sustain the 19 handle. Here we are again ,one month prior to two major launches for NASA. The 19.52 / 19.53 levels are the critical prices going forward. Looks like some bets started today...I am moving to a buy from a strong buy ,because you have to believe that both missions will go as planned.this is an area for the players and strong of hearts and pockets....Good Luck

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • despite the trending, I'm going to hold long because I see this stock getting a nice boost when ORB's missions come to fruition.

    • My prediction is that when these launches start no matter what the volume will get fairly high for awhile at least a couple double days maybe triple. which will increase the volatility which could shoot us past 19 easily or drop us fast depending on how the launch goes.

    • I added some to an ira end of last week at $18.38. Followed it years ago and for some reason never took the plunge. Feel good about it now as I'm not concerned with the next few months, but the next two to three years. Got a worse case scenario opinion should things not go as planned?

      • 1 Reply to dfm7785
      • I will give it my best shot...
        Between now and the LADEE launch in early Sept. , I think we are range bound.Absent any news, that range is probably somewhere between 18.50 and 19.20. A success might give a false break of the 19.50 target , and a failure will knock the price into the 17's. No matter, the Demo mission A few weeks later will be the critical event. If we are in the 17 to 18 range ,based on the earlier launch failure, I read somewhere just after the April risk reduction flight succeeded, that support could be found at 15.70. If the COTS demo is following a LADEE success and hovering in the mid 19's, you will probably find some support on the way down, but it will not be a fun ride.
        The good news ... Both go well and we are on a ride up to prices not seen since the Summer of 2008. If there are any other scenarios I missed , feel free to ask me to look into my crystal ball, which is almost never right :). Good luck...

        Sentiment: Buy

    • And this jump is on twice the normal volume which I believe is a very good sign.