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Appliance Recycling Centers of America Inc. Message Board

  • snds10 snds10 Nov 23, 2012 1:57 PM Flag

    Going Forward

    OK this is getting interesting. Seems like lots of tax loss selling at these levels.

    So how could 2013 look? They could have a million or so of carbon credits which could equal $.20 for the year. What could they make with aap? I think they should make .10 at least maybe way more but it all depends on scrap prices. How will the ApplianceSmart stores do? Anybody could make a guess. I would like to know what they forecast for net profit after everything per store? I would think around 3-4% would be a good net profit, and I mean after all G&A and everything. If they have $4M per store and could make 3% that's $120K per store. If they average 20 stores that's $2.4 from the stores. It doesn't seem like they average that much profit but does seem like they doing a store level analysis to identify underperforming stores. If they could make $.30 on the recycling area plus the retail stores. I would like to see 3% net or .42 from the stores for a total of $.72 which I think is very realistic. If the court case in CA lingers on the prices for carbon credits could be further pressured. Lets say I'm too optimistic at $.72 for 2013 my earnings estimate for the year is $.50-.72. I'm not sure what the consultants will cost for the GE expansion but I would guess $200K?? and hope to throw that into the 4th quarter and call this a bad transition year. I think they will get the financing isssue resolved in early December and that should send the stock back over $2.

    I think Jack is doing a good job and is making all the right decisions. It's especially good to see him get a little opinion from consultant on the GE expansion. It shows he's open to change and new ideas which isn't always the case with the CEO.

    Any comments. I was totally wrong about this year but I think my logic going forward is solid.

    Have a nice day.

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