Once we are past that it will fly. I think the herd mentality had it's play today...everybody was affraid to buy but watch out, those ETFs always work the same. You usually have a major down or major up days followed by a reversal. FAS & URE will most likely reverse tomorrow and open up with a gap. Especially with the news out. Yes, it's somewhat old news but nevertheless that money will flow into the economy and the socialistic government will do everything to attempt price fixing of Real Estate. Let the news rub the Stimulus in and the market will go up for a little bit more. Remember, it's also options expiration. I don't think we will go down straight from here and I'm very bearish on equities in general. But all the negative RE news is factored in already so the downside is very limited.
If you look at the 3months chart and RSI, we are very close to the bottom. We're at 35.22 right now and other reversals occured at 35.37 on 12/01/08 and when 31.62 on 11/21/08 with a new low of 3.07. Within a week of the 11/21/08 low it went to over $6.45 and within 7 days of the 12/01 low it traded again in the high 5s.
I used to play FAS but I don't do so right now, especially not for holding overnight given the potential scenario of Nationolization of US Banks. I didn't hold overnight on Friday because there was no way of acting depending on the way Asia and Europe traded yesterday and I'm glad I had my money out but today I feel comfortable holding URE. I won't hold for long, 2 days max and will most likely get out tomorrow. I think URE will reach $3.50-$3.75 range within the next ten trading hours.
Also look at the last time the Dow went from a 7900s (high) to 7500 the next day, losing nearly 950pts in two trading days, there was a 500pt up day the next, followed by a couple more up days bringing the rally to nearly 1300pts from the 7500 low. There were also two trading days on Nov20 and Nov21 were the Dow reached a low of 7390 and 7450 so there is support below us.
Given that RSI is near other turn-arounds for URE on the 3months chart, we just had a gap down today followed by trading evenly, passing of Stimulus bill will most likely contribute to Asia reversing for a couple days, Options Expiration week, etc. I'm confident to play URE at this time. Not to hold forever but for a short term play with Exit Strategy within the next 5 trading days.
What do you think?
My long term sentiment is down for the stock market. I don't think we've reached bottom just yet for 2009. But in the short term I think URE will trade up again towards $4-5.
Out at $3.07 with 25% of holdings, bought back at $2.89 to cost average down and sold all at $3.02. Won't touch this anymore as it didn't react as I expected. Still made $1000+ within 4 trading hours and now I'm moving on. Was fun playing with URE, good luck!
I play srs and ure. I was in srs today and got out and bought ure. Obama learned his lesson the first time. When he speaks tomorrow he will have a detailed outline of what's going to happen. The market will skyrocket and so will ure. The whole reason the market tanked like it did was to show him who the real boss is and that's the market. Obama knows that now and will give the market what they want. Details. With a nice rally coming this stock could double in 1 to 2 weeks.
I'm the first to say that this market should be much lower than it is. But nothing goes straight up and straight down without any counter rallies/moves in between.
We still have support below us and while the market didn't react to Obama positively thus far, there will be speeches coming that temporarily cause the market to rally some. How about another hint at halting home foreclosures. That's an attempt at price fixing and positive for URE. I'm completely against price fixing and don't agree with Obama, the Democrats, and many neoconservative Republicans. But I can't change it so I might as well play along. I think the market overreacted today because we were off yesterday and there was such selling pressure at the beginning of the day due to people wanting to sell after seing Asia and Europe drop. I'm very bullish on Gold but am realistic and think we have another pull back. I don't trade core positions that I hold for the long term, e.g Gold, but I made money trading FAS, FAZ, ERX, DIG and SRS.
You really think that URE won't touch $3.50 ever again? Even GM rallied from $2.50 to $4 when it was more than obvious that this was almost a financial suicide move and Vegas would provide better odds. I'm bullish on URE for the short term at these levels. Sure it could go a bit lower but I think we'll see $3.50s again soon.
Some Asian markets are hinting at hitting a temporary bottom and might rally again from here. Nikkei currently shows a pattern I could see us following for tomorrow. Initial down to low 7500 followed by a rally up to 7750 or something like that. Maybe rally right away, I don't know. But I know better than think that this will go straight down. Nobody wants to buy URE right now but when the momentum changes things will change quickly with those ETFs. Look at FAS a couple weeks back when it rallied from $7.45 to $8.60 within a matter of 60min. Sure there was news out about the Economic Stimulus but to think that URE will go straight down from here without a major bounce is a bit out there if you ask me.
Also keep in mind that about all negative news is out there for now. I know that more will come but combine all that negative news with a market holiday and of course the following day (today) will be way down. I just don't think that this trend will continue for the next 7 days.
Thus far, the past three trading days were the worst for URE since early November. And even then on Nov 13th there was a bounce where the high for the day was $1.35 higher than the close the previous day. Sure, the low was lower than open that day, but between the low and the high that day, there was a $2 trading range on URE that closed at $6.69 the previous day. I"m not saying that URE or any other of those ETS are good for long term hold but there are potential great trades to be taken along the way. Nothing goes down forever in a straight line and a perfect example is the USD. Yes, it will go lower but you can't ignore the potential counter rallies along the way.