Brainpower? Sorry, that's a bit insulting, but seriously - if you believe in recovery, what kind of world do you think we're going to recover to? We are a consumer economy - and the consumer is either out of work or taking pay cuts and in debt up to their eyeballs - and the very highly leveraged CRE market, be it retail, office, industrial, and residential, is all structured around on the continual flow of consumer dollars. Do you see a return to the credit excesses of recent years anytime soon? Do you see falling unemployment anytime soon? Between lower revenues, rising vacancy, higher taxes, etc., going forward I don't see how anyone can be bullish on CRE. Many of the bigger REITs are 50% off their recent lows. Take it and run.
That's what I'm doing and I very seldom hold anything very long. In fact I'm adding to my position as URE goes up. Keep in mind this ETF was $77 just 3 years ago. I don't think it's unreasonable for it to be $25 in 5 years?
Wall Streeters and real estate people are smart, can sell and know how to make money. They've been written off before and always come back. This time more patience is required.
URE at $3.50 is the best long-term investment I've seen. I'm already dreaming how I'll spend all the friggin' money. lol
don't get ahead of yourself. there can be much ST pain. can be at 4 prior to end of week. much depends on MS earnings and what is said on the CC. rumor is real estate will hurt the report and if that's the case, URE could be in for some real pain. certainly 4 isn't unreasonable and I would be tempted to take profits at that level. hitting button the sell button is a difficult task for many traders as greed enters the equation. I project URE will hit 6 prior to year end. before that happens though, there will be opportunities in the interim.