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  • laurent_labrie laurent_labrie Jan 4, 2011 3:02 PM Flag

    This collapse will be the grand daddy of all collapses

    "Obviously coming back"? Prices are falling and there are more bankruptcies and more unemployment than ever. The mall near us is still shutting down shops going out of business.

    In what country do you live?

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    • only because you live in a progressive state. many other more conservative states are on the road to recovery. CRE is very regional. CRE is close to the bottom. How many CRE permits applied for or issued these days????? very few! what that means is any expansion will eat up current inventory. vacancies are at historic highs. the small M&A activity is picking up according to the wealth managers I know. those with money see the end of the decline and are feeling more comfortable putting money to work whcih means buying up marginal and mismanaged business and pprofiting on the turnaround. business hasn't hired because business is getting more production out of each employee. Fact is, the production cureve is leveling off and the incremental gains are less and less which essentially means to increase production, business has to hire empolyees. I hred 7 new employees in the past 6 months which is a 20% employee increse and my revenues increased 40% year over. More impressive, margins increade over 100%. My OH virtually reamined the same with only the cost of insurance (healthcare, workers comp and liability ins. increaseing). I certainly have not had to increase wages over the past 2 years and I sure as hell didn't give out bonus $. I let marginal employees go prior to the big crash and have replaced those marginal employees for 15% less money and getting 10-20% more production. If commodities prices stay in check, I should see consistant margins over the next few years and should see 25%. I assume I'm not much differnt from any other business except I am well capitalized, didn't leverage nyself in business and have plenty of operating cash and consistant cash flows.

      • 1 Reply to nyxout
      • You are correct on a couple counts. CRE is regional. RE in general is in the early stages of a long steady recovery despite the closing of the mall down the street. Where you are wrong is in viewing the RE market through a lens of conservative politics. If you look at actual data you will see that progressive states and counties are the ones with the stronger economies. Look at real estate prices and unemployment rates. For instance you'll find that the progressive states in the northeast are much healthier than those in the southeast.
        Sometimes I think you cons confuse personal finance with macro economic policy. For governments the time to make spending cuts is when times are good. You then have the funds to stimulate an ailing economy. Business is going to invest in plant and equipment when there's no demand for their product. Government must inject the liquidity.

    • did you check the price on URE since your post? price doesn't seem to understand the mall near you is shutting down.

128.05+1.78(+1.41%)Sep 28 8:00 PMEDT