89.3mdwt of the fleet is 20 years old and half of that amount is over 25 years. As of 1/18 scrapping already was at 1.5mdwt. So with 13.3 % of the fleet at 20 years plus lets see if these low rates produce another year of 5 % scrapping of the fleet.
I'd like to find a breakdown of those numbers according to size of ship.
So far I'm having trouble finding them, though I've seen it in researching.
The Capes and Panas are the only thing pertinent to DRYS.
And in general, the average age and life expectancy of Capes is younger than Handies.
A month ago Hellenic had the average age of Capes at 7 years old, and only 3.5% of the Capes were over 25 years old.
The number of Panas over 25 was 10%.
Of the likely candidates for scrapping, age obviously the key factor but also, pre 1997 capes were under 170,000 dwt. and considered likely.
And any converted oil tankers would present a likely candidate.
Just being a likely candidate doesn't necessarily get the job done.
And any healthy increase in rates will put an end to scrapping of ships under 20.
I'll try to find it, but a huge percentage of Capes and VLOC's are under five years old.
Have you ever looked at how many drybulkers were built annually in the 80s and early 90s? Some years, less than 5 million dwt. Saying there are 45 million dwt of drybulkers LEFT which are over 25 years old is complete and utter nonsense. That would imply NONE of them which were built in 1980-1987 have yet to be scrapped.