Seriously if you would have asked me 90 days ago if they were going bk I would have given it a 10% chance. But I've finally come to the conclusion that the dardens well document history of failure after failure is finally catching up to them. I held out hope that they might actually be able to do one thing right but I was wrong. HRB monetization is now off the table. They are just left with the barnett. Which everyone and their brother is currently dumping assets at fire sale prices in this basin. Realistically they might get $250m which is a drop in bucket of the $2.2 B in debt they have. Remember part of their renegotiated LOC requires all of that to pay down the LOC, therefore no LTD will be paid down. Scary part is the $850m revolver will likely be reduced to $500M in April. Esentially they will have only $200M of room left on the LOC. That combined with expected CAPEX matching CF they are setup to default on the '15 debt. Unless ng recovers to the $8 level by the end of 2013. Which has about less than 0% chance of happening. Bottom line I bet the dardens are currently working on exit strategies. Effing crooks.
The Barnett will fetch much closer to $1 billion. If you look at the production figures, and the mix of natural gas, ngl's and small amount of oil from the Barnett, look at the lifting costs and then look at the 5 yr strip, a buyer can realize close to $2/mcf profit. I think you will see something along the lines of a blended price of $8500 per flowing mcfe.
As has been noted, the Horn River Basin has take away issues, so monetizing it is tough, but make no mistake, the Barnett is not trash. It isn't exciting any more...but it is a money maker that is heavily PDP.
Latest nail in the coffin. Canada rejected the proposed pipeline to Horn river. So they have no way to get the ng to production to market. No one is going to buy that white elephant now. They are screwed. I'm sure they will keep sinking 3-5m to drill 100/boepd holes in west texas.
Thanks for that info. For anyone else who missed the story, search on "NEB rejects TransCanada unit’s bid to expand B.C. gas pipeline" (including the quote marks) and you'll see the article in the Financial Post reporting this.