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Quicksilver Resources, AŞ Message Board

  • bodava4 bodava4 Jul 24, 2013 9:03 PM Flag

    Focus on the facts..

    Public company since March 1999, after operating as a private independent for 36 years

    Industry-recognized expertise in unconventional gas reservoirs, including fractured shales and coals

    Demonstrated expertise of creating value in a step-process: early entry into plays, exploitation, build infrastructure, then exit at mature stage for reinvestment into new plays

    Significant management ownership (greater than 30% at 12/31/12)


    High-quality natural gas, NGL and oil reserve base
    (As of December 31, 2012):
    •1.5 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe) based on SEC price of $2.76/MMbtu
    •88% proved-developed producing
    •76% of reserves are natural gas, 23% natural gas liquids, and 1% oil

    Operating areas

    Fort Worth Basin - Barnett Shale:
    •1.2 Tcfe proved reserves as of December 31, 2012, based on SEC price of $2.76/MMbtu; 72% natural gas and 28% NGL and oil/condensate
    •130,000 net acres; approximately 100,000 in the liquids fairway
    •60% held by production
    •Estimated additional recoverable resource of approximately 1-2 Tcfe
    •Drilled 22 gross wells and connected 31 gross wells in 2012
    •2013 Plan ◦Drill and complete up to 10 wells
    ◦Well costs are approximately $3.0-$3.5MM

    Horn River Basin (NE British Columbia):
    •Approximately 105 Bcfe proved reserves at December 31, 2012, based on SEC price of $2.76/MMbtu
    •130,000 net acres, of which substantially all is on 10-year development leases
    •Estimated additional recoverable resource of approximately 10 Tcfe
    •2013 Plan ◦Minimal capital in 2013
    ◦Preparing to drill 4-6 well pad in early 2014
    ◦Targeting flat volumes at 100 MMcfd

    Horseshoe Canyon - Coal Bed Methane (Alberta, Canada)
    •Approximately 162 Bcfe proved reserves at December 31, 2012, based on SEC price of $2.76/MMbtu
    •315,000 net acres; approximately 50,000 gross undeveloped acres
    •Average production of 55 MMcfd for 2012

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    • Let me try put a $ value to the list of assets in your post.
      Fort Worth Basin - Barnett Shale: $1,455 based on the Tokyo Gas deal
      Horn River Basin $450 - $600
      Conservative 130,000 x 3,400 based on the Apache-ECA/EOG late 2012 transaction
      Optimistic 130,000 x 4,500+
      Horseshoe Canyon: not sure about your acreage or its valuation, at least its an asset in production. :)
      Sand Wash Basin: $250
      167,000 x 1,500 based on the equalization payment from Shell to KWK for the recent JV deal
      Delaware & Midland basins & Southern Alberta Basin: No idea. :)

      Let's take the conservative estimate for HRB, we then have
      $1,455 + $450 + $250 = $2.155
      + Horseshoe Canyon + Delaware & Midland basins & Southern Alberta Basin
      This is a sold asset coverage for its net debt of ~$1.6B (excluding $ from its valuable hedge contracts).

    • Informative post. Also watch Quicksilver bonds, which has been very steady for the last couple of weeks. Notice both 2019 senior unsecured and 2016 sub are at the bottom of the capital structure, and the 2019 doesn't enjoy as much temporal seniority like the 2016; they would be among the first to fall in all Quicksilver debts. Yet today, there is average/below-average trading volume and steady price in both.

    • I focused on the facts for too long. The only thing that matters at this point is the price per share. With the Barclays downgrade- who knows how low we will go. If the company has valuable assets like we think they do, why so much negativity and downgrades. Call it manipulation or maybe just bad investing/analysis/research on our part. In addition, why a downgrade by Barclays so close to the earnings call on Aug 6? If this goes under $1 per share- we have to worry about the threat of being delisted. In addition, the lower the stock price, the lower the potential acquisition price if a buyout occurs. There has not been any good news since the barnett sale of 25% months ago. We keep preaching the same story, but I only hear crickets!

    • Sand Wash Basin – Colorado
      •167,000 net acres with Shell which we believe is prospective for oil from the Niobrara Formation
      •Three wells drilled in 2012, verticals averaging approximately 100 MMbl/d
      •2013 Plan ◦Participate in the drilling of up to 8 wells and renew leases

      Delaware & Midland basins – West Texas
      •167,000 net acres, of which we believe 126,000 is prospective for oil from the Wolfcamp and Bone Springs formations
      •2013 Plan ◦Drill 2-3 wells

      Southern Alberta Basin – NW Montana
      •170,000 net acres; 68% held by production

0.1460.000(0.00%)Mar 13 3:59 PMEDT