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CardioDx, AŞ Message Board

  • reocvalue reocvalue Jan 29, 2000 9:35 AM Flag

    California Real Estate and Catellus

    The Washington Post reports this morning that
    there is a severe housing shortage in the San Francisco
    area - resulting in soaring real estate prices. San
    Francisco now has the most expensive real estate market in
    the nation - with a MEDIAN home price of $372,700
    (compared to $136,000 nationally).

    The Washington
    Post article also notes that to meet housing demand,
    housing starts must increase by 100,000 or more, and that
    housing in the Silicon Valley "has become like the new
    blue-chip stocks."

    One wonders why the stock price
    of Catellus, with its vast California and San
    Francisco real estate holdings, is not booming as well.
    Hopefully for Catellus shareholders, it is only a matter of

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    • I live in the bay area and yes, it is expensive,
      especially san francisco. Mission bay gets lots of coverage
      in the local press. If you want to access it, go to
      the San Francisco Chronicle home page, click on
      search, and type catellus as your subject. The press
      coverage is positive. SF has rent control; and very, very
      high rents. The City is already built up; effectively,
      the only new space available is Mission Bay; so there
      are hopes that new supply of rental units will
      alleviate the high rents. After harassing Mission Bay for
      decades, the City now wants it built and is even elbowing
      catellus to make the build out faster. One thing is
      certain: the apartments that are built are going to be
      fully rented at very high rents. I think the mission
      bay build out "guarantees" catellus's growth rate
      into the near future. it's a gold mine; the only
      question being how much of that gold mine is already
      priced into the stock. Not much in my opinion. Buy it

      • 1 Reply to nellgwyn
      • IMHO you two fellows are neglecting the fact that
        there are so many shares outstanding. San Francisco's
        (and Los Angeles')CDX properties are maybe equivalent
        to one leg of an elephant who has huge mass
        otherwise. Many shares outstanding and a whopping debt load
        means this ship is tough to steer and tougher to turn
        around.-- Any building and/or other improvements on CDX's
        properties are quite likely to exacerbate CDX's debt
        problems --Does somebody have a rational estimate of the
        actual per share real estate market value of CDX?-- With
        the buyback program of CDX and the eagerness of PERS
        to cut their losses by selling, analysis is
        necessary to determine if this potential buy/sell offset is
        net bullish or bearish for the stock.