I agree, the divergence here would seem to be material. I think the bulls believe that finance isn't a major contributor to the HBs fortunes while most bears see a bubble driven by low rates and loose credit. I would expect to see the HBs trade down but that said we seem to be in some pretty wild territory here so I'm just not sure where we'll be at next week. Since CNBC is telling us daily about the HBs there are a lot of momentum players involved now that are pushing the sector.
A big surprise to the upside on the jobs number on Friday would amp talk of a 50bps raise by the Fed and would seem to cause the HBs to sell off. A miss to the downside will cause bonds to rally and probably the HBs too. Since the jobs number is so volatile Friday will be interesting.