Another good short might be MDC. PHM is expected to lose $8/share and sells for $11/share. MDC is expected to lose almost $13/share and sells for over $32/share. Both face an extremely bad future for some time to come. No homebuilder can begin to compete with foreclosures.
We'll see. I shorted @ 11 and hope to cover in the single digits. Always trade on fundamentals.
Home prices continue to decline Foreclosures continue to rise Unemployment continues to rise with no end to sight Alt-A loans going to reset in 2009-2010, setting another wave of defaults
I'm sure some of the better homebuilders will make it through, but not without significant cash burn and writedowns. I don't know how this company is going to come out strong on its land tax, accounts payable, and 3.4 billion worth of debt.