Why the sudden huge gain in all the builders this morning?
Around 8:00 AM? All of them - the whole sector - went up 5%+ on huge volume in a matter of 30 minutes. Even now the market's only been open for 3 hours and the volumes exceed average daily volumes. Something's up; some kind of news, that cause the rapid short-covering.
I have been searching for the reason and have not found much. BZR reported that losses narrowed right at the time PHM really shot up. But BZR isn't really trading that high, plus all the building material stocks took off too.
Fast Money highlighted the builders, but just like all the CNBC shows, they are behind the curve.
I am going to continue to watch and maybe someone on this board will come up with the reason.
This game is so crooked, but you have to ask yourself, why did the entire homebuilding sector - ALL companies including construction suppliers (except maybe BZH) - suddenly shoot up 5 to 7% in about 30 minutes? That was obviously a short-covering whoosh.
Maybe the employment report on Friday was "early-released" for a private fee. Who knows, but some piece of information suddenly increased the volume in the stocks by 50% and that volume was concentrated in the leaders - DHI, LEN, PHM, TOL.
I will keep you posted, but the inventory numbers in CA continue to come down. They are about half of what they were a year ago. It's as difficult as ever for private builders to get financing, and all the loans are only being written for "perfect borrowers" - so the same idiots that would give away $500K to any dufus on the streets 7 years ago, have now set up a situation that is the exact opposite: where there's growing demand for incredible mortgage rates (that you can't get) on homes you can't buy, from builders who can't get financing to build them.
The result? No inventory, and not enough ongoing-construction to go around. In short, a demographic housing shortage.
Danstv, are you almost there in Phoenix, AZ? In San Francisco there's multiple offers (15 to 20) on any home on the market and they have been going for 25% over asking. Once the available inventory gets down to the 1 to 2 months level is when the fireworks go off.
This summer could get very very interesting. Just before an election too.