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Michael Kors Holdings Limited Message Board

  • richrusso300 richrusso300 Dec 27, 2012 6:46 PM Flag

    Q3 YTY Numbers

    We all have our opinions, bull or bear & thats fine but here are some facts & figures for Q3 '11 & Q 3 '12

    Revenue for Q 3 '11 was 375.61M, projected Revenue for Q 3 '12 is 543.64M or an increase of 45.50%
    EPS for Q 3 '11 was .20, projected eps for Q 3 '12 is .41 or an increase of 105%

    Even in boom times these are fantastic numbers, but especially in this economy it's unreal, I am not aware of too many companies showing this huge growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • FYI
      EPS for Q3 2011 would have been .28
      IPO expenses trimmed 8 cents off the bottom line
      Conservatively I believe we can see 50 cents this quarter at a minimum.
      RE the Citi analyst
      was he covering KORS a year ago??
      If not how does he know if their discounting this week is unusual??
      Maybe they move out discontinued lines every year at this time.
      I would, the bargain hunters come out after Christmas, correct?


      Sentiment: Buy

    • I hear you bro but why is the stock not behaving in that way???? I am really puzzled. I am long but my fear is if we go over the cliff, the retail sector will taking a huge beating, and as you know KORS is not immune to that.

      • 2 Replies to lulunite
      • Ok, I'm no expert but I did post here over a month ago the market will have gyrations on any news good or bad concerning the fiscall cliff. I myself didn't think we would go to the end & it still looks very problematical that both parties will comprimise but I still hope.
        Yes while the market in general & almost all sectors will get slammed I agree retail will get hit hard.
        Now it depends what you mean on why the stock is behaving this way? Remember this stock just last year IPO'd at 20 so at even these discount prices we are up almost 150%, & at its heights we were up shy 200%! This stock has made many a nice chunk of money & I believe this will continue. Even with the financial collapse of 2008 KORS was making money & comps were increasing.

        The constant SPO's did not help the stock price as we hit new highs billions of dollars well sold by the insiders at discounted prices but thats another story, we experienced some unexpected bad news that Christmas retail sales were perhaps much lower than thought, however we have not heard from any store if this is so or not.

        Remember, not every store is created equal, & IMO KORS saw brisk buisness as they have affordible luxury worn by The First Lady to J-LO to the average secratary may have a handbag or watch.

        Short term there may be some problems & we have seen this week the negative reaction, does anyone want to sell out now? I'm not sure how much lower it can go unless something terrible happens.

        I am thinking long term, I do believe earnings (even at these numbers will be a triple digit increase) will be better than expected.

        Good luck

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • When a stock is has a long time to earnings, it is very unpredictable. In this case most are trading it off of published estimates for this quarter which is lowballed in a big way. Until you get closer to earnings, it can go down but will bounce back that much harder closer to earnings.

        Those that are shorting it now are just looking at future estimates and deciding it is too expensive in a tough retail environment. However, they will not do too much research beyond what is published. That is the key to making money on this stock. As it drops, you buy and around earnings mid February you sell it around 70 unless they preannounce. The shorts provide the fuel the move higher at that time.
        I also suspect that as we hit January it will rally big. Even on Fast MOney they talked about unusual activity..bullish..according to John Najarian.......I think it is heavy volume Jan 50 and 55 calls. They are thinking the same way I am. Also he is bearish on Coh and that makes sense too.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

48.56+0.01(+0.02%)Oct 26 4:03 PMEDT