It quite obvious that you do not understand the panel decision from back in December. Their are restrictions baked into the label and thus already baked into the stock price. Read the label and all the restrictions placed on AEGR's drug by the FDA. Worst case scenario would be that K gets a black box warning.
The shorts hunt in packs, they work and trade cooperatively. One can reasonably expect that a combination of sell the news plus shorts leaning on the trade will be sufficient for a dip on approval.The size of the short position is too large for anything other than a dip. For the shorts to make money the FDA has to say no. Yes or yes with conditions is not enough for them to cover at a profit.