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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • zbuzz1970 zbuzz1970 Jul 19, 2013 1:25 PM Flag

    Amgen must be backing out too


    Their stock is up $2.83 right now. Any inkling that Amgen would be paying over 10 billion in cash for Onyx to realize an extra 1 billion in revenue in 2016 would make Amgen stock go down again.

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    • Amgen is likely to be winner--Probability 75%.

    • Amgen has weaker pipeline of new drugs--they have to boost it.In M&A-- there is always 2 step bidding process.First bid is generally the starting point.Second or third bid takes time and is usually 10 to 40% higher.Look at the SEC filings for Amylin or Pharmacett--BMY/AZN acquired Amylin and GILD acquired Pharmacett.
      To expect a deal in this short time is NOT NORMAL.

    • My interpretation of new quote that the bidding "got away" from the buyers was that after the initial bid of 120 the bidding talk got too high for some , so makes me think we are talking about 150. Also, the companies on the sideline are not stupid to play the bankers game and bid against each other, and would rather wait for the second round to close a deal. What we are seeing today is the typical seemingly coordinated influence of MM, hedge funds and timely news release to screw the people who own options at options expiration. The SEC should look at that too

      • 2 Replies to pharmanot
      • Pharma, I think, nobody knows nothing! One day PFE iss out, the next day it is in with AZE & NVS. Andd what happening with BMY, MRK & GILD? And how come that one person knows who going to submit the bid before it was submitted? I assume that these BP "expressed interest", but from interest expression to biding is like from coming to open house and submitting offer, i.e. long way to go. So, it is not clear how many bidders we'll get. If more than one would be great! And now about the price: 10B valuation equal $135 and I think it is fare valuation. I assume it is possible to justify 10% premium, i.e. $148. Maybe $150. On the other hand the offered price must be higher than current price, so I believe the current price won't change much up until announcement.

      • In my uneducated opinion, it seems with multiple bidders that 150 won't do it. The final bid has to be a knock-out so my guess is 160 and say good-bye to the sales, marketing, etc. Hope the company has discussed the exit package especially for the long-timers. It sucks.

    • There stock went up when they made their first offer...this tells me that Amgen will win out and their investors are happy about that...

    • ONXX -said no ---AMGn --no we wont buy --

      Sentiment: Strong Buy