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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • fourpanelbeach fourpanelbeach Jul 19, 2011 10:40 AM Flag

    talk or data?

    Notice how in the news XIN keeps appearing when seekingalpha and others run data based screens for most undervalued stocks? Do you believe in data and facts? If so, you have to buy XIN. By any objective fundamental criterion (growth rate, PE, PEG, sales, options, cash on hand, top line revenues, bottom lines, etc., etc., etc.,) XIN is one of the best bargains on the entire stock exchange. These stock screens prove that.

    And don't give me the line about, "then why hasn't it gone up yet?" The whole point of looking at objective data is to identify and buy the bargains BEFORE they go up. Would you rather wait until after its gone up to buy?

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    • top 20 is still not large enough for US investors, they like top 3 in any market.

    • Most investors are momemtum traders. They buy at the top and sell at the bottom. Just leaves more money for us.

    • You have to realize all those fundamental criterion you looked at are either backwards looking or based on assumptions derived from the past. XIN has pretty good PEG number, but the growth rate is based on the past. Even XIN's management agree it is far away from a growth company, and that is why they declare dividend.

      Chinese real estate industry has changed. Large player will rule it. Vanke has first half sales up more than 70% in 2011 while XIN will have difficulty to even maintain flat sales growth. When XIN's profit drop to 20% of the current level. Its PE will be no longer 3. That's why Vanke has PE higher than 10 while XIN's PE is around 3.

      If you feel value investing is as easy as just looking at couple of metrics and determining the stock is substantially undervalued. You will learn your lessons in the future. You need to understand the business better than regular people.

      Buying bargain before they go up is a wonderful idea. But you have to make sure whether it is a bargain or a crap. If you know something called value trap, you will understand what I am saying.

      • 1 Reply to stan.ackman
      • XIN is projected for over 20% growth this year. They should earn between 0.92 and 1.05 EPS. Even if profit's were to drop 20% and at 0.50 EPS it would still be undervalued. XIN is not only down due to the " real estate bubble in china". It's down because no investor wants a piece of the chinese dark cloud of shady ADR's. XIN is different than most in that it's an IPO and has been around since the 90's and has a great CFO. XIN was double from where it was now with less earnings. Other things are dragging XIN down than just property talk.

        This stock deserves to trade above $4.00 NOW and when a bull market in the chinese small cap sector starts this year or next (and it WILL HAPPEN when you least expect it). This will be trading at 4+. If the sector rallies long enough this could easily shoot to a 10 p/e or double digits. XIN isn't trading on just an individual stock basis, many external factors are hitting it. Some warranted, some unwarranted.

        This stock is a great investment long term. Store it away and forget all the negativity and forget what the market does this year or next. Unfortunately most of you will sell when it pops to $3.00 and break even or make little money if any. That's why only 3% of people in the market actually make money in the long run. Be patient, U won't be sorry.

        Good luck longs.

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